- Geopolitical disruptions, including Suez Canal traffic decline and Strait of Hormuz focus, are reshaping global shipping routes and extending voyage distances.
- Containerized and energy trade show divergent trends, with LNG emerging as the fastest-growing segment, while dry bulk and tanker markets remain volatile.
- Fleet evolution and regulatory changes, including alternative fuel adoption and the IMO Net-Zero Framework, are driving a shift toward greener and more resilient maritime operations.
Global shipping is navigating unprecedented challenges, with vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope amid disrupted passages and volatile freight rates, according to UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport 2025. The Suez Canal experienced traffic roughly 70% below average in 2023, shifting strategic focus to the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 34% of global seaborne oil exports. These disruptions have increased average voyage distances from 4,831 miles in 2018 to 5,245 miles in 2024, driving a 5.9% rise in ton-miles compared with a 2.2% growth in seaborne volumes. As UNCTAD notes, “Distance is no longer geography; it is geoeconomics.”
Trade Growth Trends and Commodity Dynamics
UNCTAD projects that global maritime trade will slow in 2025, with total trade volume rising just 0.5%, containerized trade 1.4%, and ton-miles increasing marginally by 0.3%. Container trade rebounded in 2024 due to restocking and Red Sea rerouting, while energy trade diverged: coal demand surged in Asia, oil volumes remained broadly stable but traveled farther, and LNG showed the strongest growth amid supplier diversification. Container spot rates soared by mid-2024 and, despite moderating, remained well above pre-crisis levels, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index averaging 2,496 points in 2024, a 149% year-on-year increase. Dry bulk rates rose on coal, grain, and fertilizer demand, later easing in mid-2025 as new capacity entered the market, while tanker rates remained elevated but volatile.
Policy and Trade Uncertainty
Policy changes have added further uncertainty. In 2025, the United States introduced new tariffs and port fees targeting Chinese-owned, operated, or built vessels, as well as foreign vehicle carriers. UNCTAD notes that the impact on trade patterns, network design, and fleet deployment remains unclear.
Fleet Evolution and Alternative Fuels
As of January 2025, the global commercial fleet numbered approximately 112,500 vessels with 2.44 billion dwt, growing 3.4% year-on-year—slower than the two-decade average but faster than trade growth. By May 2025, 8% of the active fleet and 53% of vessels on order were designed for alternative fuels. Flags of Liberia, Panama, and the Marshall Islands accounted for 45.1% of carrying capacity, while ownership concentrated in Greece, China, and Japan, with Greece leading at 16.4%. LNG bunkering is now available at around 200 ports, with additional expansion planned. Average ship waiting times rose between December 2023 and March 2024 in both developed (from 5.2 to 6.4 hours) and developing economies (from 10.2 to 10.9 hours).
Connectivity and Regulatory Developments
Liner connectivity increased in Africa and Asia, with Africa growing fastest at 10% between June 2024 and June 2025.
The IMO Net-Zero Framework, approved in April 2025 and due for formal adoption in October 2025, combines a global fuel standard with carbon pricing and emissions trading, establishing a Net-Zero Fund. Rules would come into force in 2027, with implementation from 2028. Additionally, the Hong Kong Convention on ship recycling entered into force in June 2025. Work continues on legal liability frameworks for alternative fuels, a non-mandatory code for autonomous ships by 2026, and strengthened safeguards for seafarers under the Maritime Labour Convention.
