As we enter October, global markets are ready registering spooks across the board, marking a drastic debut into Week 41. While inflationary numbers from the various locations pertinent to this Newsletter are still incoming, reports from both Turkey and Pakistan suggest they climbed through September, likely laying out the groundwork for a spooky October at both locations. Currencies too are back on the scary charts as oil finds itself slipping on its own spills and trading markets recorded the worst drop since January 2025 as the entire index declined nearly 16% for the week. Oil, on the other hand, tripped towards USD 60 / barrel and is nearly 20% lower than the same time last year as capes, panamax and even supramax indices saw the lower side of last week.
And expectedly, steel plate prices at the various recycling destinations also reflected last week’s positions with India still the only one going down the water slide.
Decidedly slipping into the micro, Indian sub-continent ship recycling destinations did not escape the incoming dark of the month as nearly all markets reported dithering numbers of arrivals at respective anchorages while recyclers continue to look for a “lift me” moment, after what has been an unexpectedly woeful 2025 of declining fundamentals, supply, prices, and sentiment. Indeed, this has turned out to be one of the slowest years for ship recycling in over a decade – and it’s still not over!
Markets have resumed a tonnage scarcity that that is struggling to keep ailing yards active, which themselves remain burdened by HKC requirements, delays, and regulatory changes. Ship recyclers must truly wonder whether all of the HKC upgrades and requirements were in vain when in the years prior, the operation of ship recycling was a fantastically well-oiled machine. Moreover, while a limited tonnage supply has been the flavor of the fruit of late, the combined present where the average age of vessels is creeping past 30 years old and new vessels continue to hit the water from newbuilding yards will see a phase out of vintage vessels in the years ahead. But the year(s) ahead has been a festering situation that’s only been getting worse since 2022. So, 2027 now?
With 18 HKC approved yards in Bangladesh and another 3 set to follow this month, Pakistan remains absent on its HKC scoreboard as the Gadani Gang continues to work hard upgrading their facilities after a slow pre-HKC start, all while Alang yards are all dressed up with nowhere to go. Pricing remains in Pakistan’s favor with provisional DASR certs playing referee on the state of incoming tonnage. India’s tough times don’t seem to end as currency and steel woes continue to sink the ‘sentiment ship’ across September. Turkey has turned into an absentee landlord, having local yards open for tonnage from Western ports but absent for the rest of the world. Oh, and the reported possibility of over 300 containers being earmarked for a ‘grey fleet’ designation? Spicy!
For Week 40 of 2025, GMS Market Rankings / vessel indications are as below.
Source: GMS,Inc.
