COME December, radio stations routinely get us in the festive mood by filling the airwaves with classic Christmas songs.
One of the more thoughtful examples of this usually lamentable genre is John Lennon and Yoko Ono’s saccharine-saturated peacenik hippy anthem, Happy Xmas (War is Over). Well, it’s a wonderful thought.
But on the day on which the Fédération Internationale de Football Association is expected to award Donald Trump an ersatz Nobel Peace Prize for his contributions to world peace, it’s worth emphasising that in many countries, this is simply not the case.
They include Ukraine, which has been at war for almost four years now following the illegal Russian invasion of February 2022.
As events in the Black Sea over the past week or so remind us, the conflict is still raging.
Ukraine’s right to take out shadow fleet tankers is legal grey area
By David Osler02 Dec 2025
Black Sea war risk rates rise after drone strikes on fears of Russian backlash
Read the full article here
Black Sea war risk rates rise after drone strikes on fears of Russian backlash
Last Friday, the suezmax Kairos(IMO: 8921602) and the LR2 Virat(IMO: 9832559) were hit by naval drones. Kyiv has stopped short of formally claiming responsibility but has openly encouraged media speculation to that effect.
On Tuesday, the same thing happened to chemical tanker Midvolga-2(IMO: 9735139). That incident merited an official denial.
Meanwhile, there have been at least seven apparent limpet mine attacks on vessels, which have recently carried Russian oil, since December 2024.
The perpetrators have not been established, but for obvious reasons, Ukraine inevitably ranks highly on the list of suspects.
As Lloyd’s List reported this week, the legal picture on all this is surprisingly complicated.
Merchant seafarers are non-combatants. Any naval attack on any merchant vessel of any flag can potentially be deemed a war crime.
But as two Hill Dickinson partners suggested in an interview, Ukraine may just about be able to construct a legal defence for what it seems to have done in furtherance of its war interests.
Important region
Meanwhile, the worst fighting witnessed by Europe since the end of the Second World War has left an indelible mark on our industry.
While it has never been up there with the dominant transpacific, Asia-Europe and intra-Asia trades, the Black Sea is an important regional submarket for both dry bulk and tanker owners.
Ukraine is one of the world’s leading grain exporters and exports 90% of its production by ship. Similarly, Russia is the world’s second-largest exporter of crude oil, and Black Sea ports are the primary hubs for the carriage of just under a quarter of its production.
By and large, shipping has followed an earlier wartime maxim; it has kept calm and carried on.
Marine insurers have offered their usual service in pricing war risk and providing cover to shipowners making Black Sea calls.
But they have done so as for-profit businesses.
Factoring in the $400m payouts from total losses on vessels trapped in Ukrainian ports on the first anniversary of the invasion in 2023, and it is difficult to establish whether the Ukraine crisis has been a net positive.
But war risk is often the icing on the cake for hull underwriters, generating sufficient proceeds to subsidise their standard hull offering at a time when tough competition has led to plummeting rates.
Black Sea war risk rates up 250% since start of November
By David Osler04 Dec 2025
Underwriters ‘fear worst’ if Russia retaliates for drone strikes
Read the full article here
Underwriters ‘fear worst’ if Russia retaliates for drone strikes
The recent attacks have pushed typical premiums up to 0.65% of hull value per trip, a surge of 250% since the start of November.
For some time, the European Union has done its best to evince solidarity with Ukraine by imposing a price cap on Russian oil. If the aim was to cripple the Kremlin’s war finances, it has not worked.
That is because it was never meant to. This always was a symbolic gesture rather than a genuine attempt to turn off the taps.
It is still legal for Western owners to take Russia oil fixtures — and for Western insurers to cover them — if there is a piece of paper that attests to price cap compliance.
Shipowners and insurers as a rule meet any and all such legal requirements to the letter. But to euphemistically rephrase what we have been told, the veracity of the underlying documents cannot be guaranteed in all cases.
It is possible that before long, Trump will merit his FIFA peace prize. His envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner have been recent visitors to Moscow, although secretary of state Marco Rubio has been a noticeable absentee from the latest round of shuttle diplomacy.
Ukraine President Zelensky has flagged up a willingness to settle on perhaps humiliating terms. But breakthroughs have looked imminent before and failed to materialise.
There is no way of telling how long sanctions will remain in place after a deal. But the best guess is that they — and their attendant compliance burden — will be with us for some time yet.
Over the next few weeks, many readers will be gearing up for the annual ritualised celebration of Saturnalia we know and love: the office Christmas party.
By all means enjoy a few drinks and join the rousing renditions of Slade and Wizzard’s immortal contributions to art of churning out Christmas singalongs.
But don’t forget the reasons why the Plastic Ono Band’s take is insufficiently upbeat to receive a spin at parties.
