Shipping industry news sources report that Trump posted on social media on the 25th, stating, “Negotiations with Iran are progressing well!”
On the 25th local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei stated that Iran and the United States have reached consensus on most issues, but “this does not mean an agreement is imminent.”
He also stated that the United States exhibits institutional inconsistency in policy formulation and decision-making, and Iran has noted its repeated shifts in stance.
Baghaei pointed out that this situation could disrupt any negotiation process. Iran will remain vigilant and cautious in the diplomatic arena, striving to safeguard its national interests based on past experience.
In short, the game surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues, still gripping global attention.
The coming week is crucial for the tanker market
As the United States and Iran appear to reach a consensus, the issue of reopening the Strait of Hormuz is now before shipowners, who must consider their options.
Shipbroker GIBSON stated that regardless of what happens in the coming days, the tanker market will need several months to return to some semblance of normalcy.
GIBSON noted that there are 157 tankers over 25,000 deadweight tons in the Persian Gulf region, 123 of which are laden, “and will attempt to depart quickly.”
Meanwhile, 150 ballast vessels over 25,000 deadweight tons are rapidly repositioning to the Gulf of Oman, ready to pick up export cargoes on short notice. GIBSON expects freight rates to remain high and volatile until risks and hazards subside.
Port congestion may occur. Loading schedules will have to be re-established, and export infrastructure and port operations remain uncertain. However, all parties in the supply chain are eager to resume cargo movement as soon as possible.
Nevertheless, GIBSON pointed out that further challenges lie ahead in the long term. The repositioning of tankers may take months to normalize.
Currently, more tankers are deployed in the West, primarily due to record-high crude oil and refined product exports from the U.S. Gulf.
Ballast vessels are unlikely to react immediately, while tankers located in the West require several weeks of sailing to reach the Persian Gulf. GIBSON noted that shipowners are unlikely to send vessels in ballast directly.
Overall, GIBSON’s analysis is cautiously optimistic. However, some in the Persian Gulf hold a different view.
Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), stated, “Even if this conflict ends tomorrow, it will take at least four months to restore 80% of pre-conflict flow, and full flow will not recover until the first or even second quarter of 2027.”
Analysts say this is one of the most pessimistic views in the industry. Yet, it highlights the severity of what the International Energy Agency calls “the world’s worst energy crisis in history.”
Carlyle Group warns global crude oil inventories nearing red line
On May 25 local time, Jeff Currie, Chief Energy Strategist at Carlyle Group, issued a warning that due to the impact of the Iran geopolitical conflict on global energy trade, global crude oil inventories have approached critical levels. Asian market inventories have fallen to operational baselines, with Europe and the United States set to face supply shortages soon, as global energy supply pressures continue to intensify.
He pointed out that overall crude oil inventory data is misleading, as a large amount of global crude reserves must be maintained for the safe operation of pipelines and storage systems, while marketable circulating inventories have shrunk significantly. Pressure is currently evident in Asian refined product markets, with supply-demand dynamics shifting in Singapore, where diesel prices have surpassed jet fuel, and supply tightness continues to escalate. Following market transmission patterns, Europe may face supply pressure within a month, with the summer travel peak season further exacerbating the gap. The short-term relief from U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve sales to Europe is unsustainable, and a clear crude oil supply shortage is expected by July.
The International Energy Agency had previously warned that the global market could face severe supply shortages during the summer peak oil consumption period, with a high probability of entering a supply-demand red zone in July and August.
In short, the “blockage” of the Strait of Hormuz has shaken the global energy market. Ultimately, from a global economic perspective, the Strait of Hormuz “must” remain open at all costs, but the final benchmark will not be diplomatic statements, but rather whether tankers, LNG carriers, and commercial vessels can continue to transit, whether maritime insurance costs decrease, whether inspections and restrictions are reduced, and whether confidence is restored among traders and shipping companies, until oil prices and inventories stabilize.
