US tariffs and new charges in shipping are shaping an environment
of uncertainty, forcing companies to adjust strategies and fleets in a market that -according to analysts- seems to be leaving behind the era of superprofits.
The situation is reflected in the data of analyst John McCown, where the net profits
of the industry in the second quarter of 2025 amounted to $4.4 billion versus $9.9 billion in the first quarter (a 56% decrease).
The year-on-year decline is even more pronounced, as in the corresponding period of 2024 profits stood at $12 billion, recording losses of 63.7%.
This picture constitutes the third consecutive quarterly decline in profits, after the period of “golden” profitability caused by the Red Sea crisis.
In fact, McCown admits that his initial forecast of $5 billion for the second quarter proved overly optimistic, as the market was faced with multiple headwinds.
A central pressure factor is the imposition of new tariffs by the United States.
Washington’s trade initiatives have significantly reduced container imports to US ports, which represent approximately one third of global “container miles”.
Data shows a 3.6% drop in import volume for the quarter ended July, while the National Retail Federation forecasts an overall 5.6% decrease for 2025 compared to 2024.
Essentially, for the remaining five months of 2025, a drop of around 17.5% is expected, which is attributed exclusively to the new tariffs.
This means carriers will need to drastically readjust their plans.
It is worth noting that the container shipping market had reaped profits
of approximately $400 billion during the pandemic, while the Red Sea crisis
added an additional $50 billion.
This experience gave companies the ability to learn to better manage
capacity, but today’s conditions prove that the balances are fragile.
McCown estimates that in the third quarter profits will fluctuate between $1.9 and $2.5 billion, much lower than the $26.4 billion of the third quarter of 2024, when the Red Sea crisis was at its peak.
Parallel to the profit reduction, the freight market continues to record losses. Drewry
announced that the World Container Index (WCI) retreated to $2,/FEU for the week ending September 11, noting a 3% decrease and confirming the 13th consecutive week of decline.
The picture is not uniform.
In the Pacific routes the Shanghai-Los Angeles and
Shanghai-New York freight rates increased by 6% and 2% respectively, however on the Asia-Europe lines the losses were heavier: Shanghai-Genoa and Shanghai-Rotterdam recorded a 12% and 10% drop.
At the same time, Drewry estimates that the inability to balance supply and demand will continue into the second half, leading to new pressures on freight rates.
The head of Drewry, Philip Damas, notes that the planned tariff increase in April had been delayed, giving a boost to orders in the months of July and
August.
However, with China’s “Golden Week” (October 1-8) marking the end of the peak season, a further decrease in demand is expected.
For its part, Dynamar underlines that the period of small “sparks” in freight rates has ended, while predicting that larger ships will replace smaller ones on key routes.
To restore the balance, a significant portion of the available capacity must be withdrawn.
The uncertainty caused by US tariff policies and new charges on Chinese ships are increasing concerns about a further weakening of the market.
This move is expected to cause either a withdrawal of capacity or a rise in prices, especially on the Asia-West Coast route, where COSCO dominates.
At the same time, orders for newbuild ships continue, a result of orders placed before the new environment was fully reflected.
In this context, the developments of the next year will be decisive. As
characteristically noted by McCown, “the period we are going through is one of the most critical in the history
of container shipping”.
The evolution of tariffs, the adjustment of carriers, and the supply-demand balance will determine whether the industry will manage to find new stability or enter a phase of prolonged crisis.
