The Iraqi oil-loaded Agios Fanourios I, which cleared the strait at the weekend, is retracing its route after halting a journey to Vietnam on Monday as it approached the US position. The tanker’s unexplained U-turn underscores the risks to third-party shipping as Washington and Tehran enforce rival restrictions across the strait.
Meanwhile, a Qatari liquefied natural gas carrier, the Mihzem, appears to have cleared the strait, marking the only transit on Tuesday morning. Now headed to Pakistan, the tanker on Monday had demonstrated caution by turning back briefly and disabling its transponder. A similar shipment successfully transited the chokepoint over the weekend.
Monday’s observable commercial transits in both directions were limited to six Iranian vessels and a bulker, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
Outbound traffic included an Iranian liquefied petroleum gas carrier, two small fuel tankers, and a bulker. A regional cargo ship followed the same route out of the waterway.
Authorities in Qatar have instructed ships near their main LNG export facility to disable tracking systems as a safety measure, further muddying visibility. The LPG tanker Xin Ming Long went silent Monday while awaiting orders, with its transit status currently unconfirmed.
Diplomatic signals offer little reassurance. US President Donald Trump has dismissed Iran’s latest offer and signaled that a ceasefire is precarious, while Iran has deployed small submarines described as an invisible guardians to secure its position in the strait.
In a post on X, US Central Command confirmed that the military has diverted 62 commercial ships since the blockade on Iran took effect.
Meanwhile, inbound commercial transits on Monday included two Iranian bulkers and an oil product tanker. Two smaller bitumen carriers also navigated the route.
Widespread AIS signal spoofing has clouded the picture, making independent verification of ship traffic increasingly difficult.
The US naval presence may also be distorting the picture. Iran-linked vessels entering or leaving the Gulf could be switching off AIS signals to avoid detection, making it harder to track flows in real time. As a result, transit counts may later be revised upward when ships reappear further from high-risk waters.
Even before the US barred movement to and from Iranian ports, it was common for Iran-linked vessels to go dark when approaching Hormuz. Signals were often not restored until well into the Strait of Malacca — around 13 days’ sailing from Iran’s Kharg Island.
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