Around 250-280 new LNG carriers will need to be ordered by 2028 to accommodate upcoming supply growth, as the trade outlook remains bullish and increasingly supported by long-haul voyages that are boosting tonnage demand
Drewry Maritime Research lead LNG shipping analyst Pratiksha Negi told Riviera that while the Middle East crisis and the resulting delays to regional projects may postpone part of the anticipated LNG supply wave, the ongoing recalibration of global trade flows continues to support a favourable market environment.
“The gradual shift in trade dynamics, with long-haul movements increasingly outweighing intra-regional trade, will further boost shipping demand and require more modern carriers by the end of the decade,” Ms Negi said, adding that ordering activity is expected to remain strong.
She pointed to a number of developments underpinning this trade recalibration.
These include the rapid expansion of US liquefaction capacity and the resulting increase in US-Asia trade, Canada securing long-term supply agreements with European and Asian buyers, African cargoes finding their way to Asia, Argentina targeting Asian markets, and importers across Asia seeking to diversify supply sources as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East threaten supply flexibility.
One consequence of the Middle East crisis could be delays to the delivery of Qatari-linked LNG carrier newbuildings. Around eight vessels originally scheduled to enter the fleet at the start of 2026 have already been postponed, and additional delays remain possible as uncertainty persists in the Middle East Gulf.
