ROME – The logistics and transport sector today faces a scenario profoundly different from that recorded during 2025. After a year characterized by signs of resilience and growth, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a geopolitical crisis destined to redefine the international balances of trade and goods handling.
Outlining the new framework is the cyclical analysis carried out by Confetra on the logistics, transport and shipping sector, based on data from 2025 and prospects for 2026, heavily influenced by tensions in the Gulf area.
According to the report, the deterioration of the international scenario intensified at the end of February 2026, with severe repercussions on global traffic. Through the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 20% of the world’s oil used to transit, but today the flow is almost zeroed: the number of ships in transit has gone from 84 to just 7 units per day, while volumes have collapsed from 3.4 million tonnes to about 201 thousand.
“The data collected for 2025 gave back the image of a sector capable of absorbing shocks – declared Carlo De Ruvo, president of Confetra – however, the current supply disruption, defined by the International Energy Agency as the largest in history, is severely testing the system. If in 2025 maritime transport grew by 4.4%, today operators must face container freight rates increased by 20% and a dry bulk transport index that marks an increase well above 100% on an annual basis.”
The most immediate consequences are being recorded in air cargo transport. After an already negative close to 2025, with a decline of 6.1%, the sector suffered a further blow in March 2026. The need to avoid areas affected by the crisis has imposed longer and more expensive alternative routes, causing a 38% increase in tariffs compared to the previous month.
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Also having a significant impact is the increase in jet fuel, which on an annual basis has recorded a doubling of prices. Airlines are also forced to load greater quantities of fuel to cover longer routes, thus reducing the space available for transporting goods.
Road transport, which in 2025 had shown positive performance with a 6.3% growth in national traffic, is also feeling the effects of rising energy costs. In Italy, the price of diesel has reached 2,045.6 euros per 1,000 liters, marking a 29% increase compared to last year.
Considering that energy represents about 30% of the operating costs of road haulage, the impact on companies is already evident: the sector’s overall costs have increased by 9% on an annual basis. In this context, the issue of the tax credit remains central, while operators are still awaiting the interministerial decree planned for the sector.
Confetra’s analysis also highlights how the current phase of instability is also slowing down the path of technological innovation for companies.
Only 6% of companies currently use Artificial Intelligence tools, despite the fact that such technologies can represent a strategic support in route management and real-time cost optimization.
An encouraging sign, however, comes from investments in training and digital skills: 51% of companies continue to focus on human capital development as a lever to face market transformations.
“For 2026, a climate of extreme caution prevails – concludes President De Ruvo – in the worst-case scenario, if the conflict were to persist, GDP growth could be one percentage point lower than estimates, with inflation exceeding 1.5 points. In this delicate phase, the ability to analyze data and react promptly to geopolitical changes represents the only true defense for the competitiveness of the national logistics system.”
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