The Bunker Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)
Based on the results of Week 47, the global MABUX bunker indices remained in a phase of mixed, multidirectional movement. The 380 HSFO Index declined by 7.97 USD, falling from 435.40 /MT the previous week to 427.43 /MT and breaking below the 430 USD threshold. In contrast, the VLSFO Index posted a marginal increase of 0.16 USD (512.58 /MT versus 512.42 /MT a week earlier). The MGO LS Index also edged higher, adding 4.28 USD to reach 818.71 /MT compared with 814.43 /MT the week before. At the time of writing, the global bunker market continued to demonstrate diverging price movements with no clearly defined trend.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) — the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO — continued its upward trajectory, increasing by $8.13 (from $77.02 last week to $85.15), thereby surpassing the $80.00 threshold. The weekly average of the index also rose by $8.21. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread extended its gains, adding $10.00 ($50.00 versus $40.00 a week earlier). The port’s weekly average likewise strengthened, rising by $12.00. In Singapore, the price gap between 380 HSFO and VLSFO widened by $11.00 (from $86.00 last week to $97.00), moving close to the psychological $100.00 level (SS Breakeven). The weekly average in the port also increased by $7.66. The continued expansion of the 380 HSFO–VLSFO price differential suggests a sustained upward trend in the SS Spread. We anticipate that the index may reach — and potentially exceed — the $100.00 mark next week, further shifting the profitability balance in favor of the HSFO + Scrubber option over conventional VLSFO. More detailed data is available in the Differentials section on .
According to Kpler, LNG imports to Asia in October totaled 22.84 million tons, marking a slight increase from September but remaining noticeably below the 24.39 million tons recorded in October 2024. Over the first ten months of 2025, Asia’s cumulative LNG imports declined by more than 14 million tons year-on-year, amounting to 225.8 million tons. A key driver behind this contraction was China, which has reported year-on-year declines in LNG imports every month since November 2024. In contrast, European LNG inflows continued to rise. During the same period, Europe imported 101.38 million tons, an increase of 16.75 million tons compared to a year earlier — despite EU leadership’s rhetoric about permanently curbing natural gas consumption. Meanwhile, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) cautioned that European countries risk over-reliance on a single supplier should they continue committing to long-term U.S. LNG contracts. The United States accounted for more than 57% of Europe’s LNG imports in the first half of 2025, consolidating its position as the region’s dominant supplier.
As of Nov. 18, European regional gas storage facilities were 81.68% full (down 0.71% from the previous week). Gas withdrawal rates continue to slightly exceed the rate of storage capacity filling. Filling levels are 10.35% higher than the level at the beginning of the year (71.33%).
At the end of the 47th week, the European TTF gas benchmark showed a slight increase: plus 0.592 €/MWh (31.694 €/MWh versus 31.102 €/MWh last week).
The price of LNG as bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) rose by $39.00 week-on-week, reaching $/MT compared to $/MT previously. The LNG–MGO price advantage remained in place, although it narrowed to $54/MT from $83/MT a week earlier, with MGO LS quoted at $/MT at the port of Sines on the same date. More detailed analytics are available in the “LNG Bunkering” section of .
By the end of Week 47, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — which reflects the ratio between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP) — showed a clear predominance of undervaluation across all bunker fuel grades in the world’s major hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
• 380 HSFO segment: Houston returned to the undervalued zone, resulting in all four ports being undervalued. Average weekly MDI values increased by 15 points in Rotterdam, 11 points in Singapore, 10 points in Fujairah, and 14 points in Houston. Houston’s MDI is now close to the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.
• VLSFO segment: Average weekly MDI undervaluation levels increased by 1 point in Rotterdam, 3 points in Singapore, 6 points in Fujairah, and 1 point in Houston. Houston’s MDI remained close to the 100% correlation mark.
• MGO LS segment: Undervaluation levels fell by 16 points in Rotterdam, 8 points in Singapore, and 7 points in Fujairah, but increased by 14 points in Houston. Singapore’s MDI moved closer to the 100% correlation threshold.
At the close of the week, the overall balance of overvalued versus undervalued ports fully shifted into the undervalued zone, with Houston being the last port to enter this category. We expect this undervaluation trend to continue in the global bunker market next week.
More detailed information on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark is available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section on .
According to the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global oil market surplus in 2025 is now projected to exceed earlier expectations. The agency has marginally increased its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 790,000 bpd, up from 700,000 bpd in the October outlook. For 2026, the IEA anticipates moderate demand growth of 770,000 bpd, slightly higher than the previously estimated 700,000 bpd. On the supply side, the IEA highlights a continued and steady expansion. Global oil supply has risen by 6.2 million bpd since January, with growth nearly evenly split between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ producers. Looking ahead, global oil production is forecast to increase by 3.1 million bpd in 2025 and by 2.5 million bpd in 2026. Non-OPEC+ countries are expected to contribute 1.7 million bpd of the increase in 2025 and 1.2 million bpd in 2026. Based on the agency’s updated supply-demand balance, the global oil market is now projected to show a surplus of 4.09 million bpd in 2025, compared with the 3.97 million bpd surplus outlined in the October forecast.
The global bunker market is still in the process of forming a sustainable trend.
We expect that next week, global bunker indices will continue to fluctuate in different directions, with no clearly defined trend emerging.
By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX
