After the National Day holiday, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) stopped falling and rebounded.
According to the latest data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on October 10, the SCFI index rose by 45.9 points last week to 1160.42 points, a weekly increase of 4.12%, ending four consecutive weeks of decline. Freight rates on the four major ocean routes all rose, with the Europe route showing a larger increase.
Last week, the freight rate from the Far East to the US West Coast rose by $8 per FEU to $1,468, a weekly increase of 0.54%; the freight rate from the Far East to the US East Coast rose by $67 per FEU to $2,452, a weekly increase of 2.81%; the freight rate from the Far East to Europe rose by $97 per TEU to $1,068, a weekly increase of 9.99%; the freight rate from the Far East to the Mediterranean rose by $73 per TEU compared to the previous week to $1,558, a weekly increase of 4.92%.
On the regional routes, the freight rate from the Far East to Japan’s Kansai remained unchanged from the previous week at $312 per TEU; the freight rate from the Far East to Japan’s Kanto remained unchanged from the previous week at $321 per TEU; the freight rate from the Far East to Southeast Asia fell by $7 per TEU compared to the previous week to $411; the freight rate from the Far East to South Korea remained unchanged from the previous week at $138 per TEU.
Industry insiders stated that the current freight rates on the Europe and US routes are already at rock-bottom prices. In order to salvage freight rates, container shipping companies are, on one hand, increasing the intensity of blank sailings and capacity reduction, and on the other hand, announcing rate increases to stop the decline. Especially as they enter the Europe route contract season, the Europe route is the primary focus for pushing rates up, aiming not only to boost spot rates but also to secure higher contract rates for the new year.
It is reported that several container shipping companies plan to announce rate increases on October 15, with the Europe route and US West Coast route freight rates per FEU to be raised to around $2,000, and the US East Coast route to be raised to around $3,000.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the peak season effect on routes to Asia, Central and South America, India, and the Middle East is still expected, which will drive a recovery in volume. It is anticipated that as Asia prepares for year-end holiday restocking demand, intra-Asia routes are expected to gradually warm up in the fourth quarter, driving an overall slow recovery in demand. For the US routes, uncertainties such as the traditional off-season, the reciprocal imposition of port fees between Chinese and US ports, and the follow-up progress of Sino-US tariff negotiations pose potential pressure on market demand.
Starting from October 14, 2025, the US government will impose additional port service fees on vessels owned or operated by Chinese companies, Chinese-flagged vessels, and vessels built in China. Alphaliner estimates that if the top ten major container shipping companies maintain their current US route deployments, they could face up to $3.2 billion (approximately RMB 22.783 billion) in additional fees by 2026.
According to Alphaliner’s calculations, the COSCO Shipping Group is the most affected shipping company, with port fees as high as $1.53 billion (approximately RMB 10.893 billion), accounting for more than half of the estimated total cost of $3.2 billion for the top ten container lines. This is followed by ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM), Japan’s Ocean Network Express (ONE), and France’s CMA CGM, with estimated costs of $510 million, $363 million, and $335 million respectively.
In response, China has also taken corresponding countermeasures. On October 10, the Ministry of Transport announced that, starting from October 14, 2025, a Special Port Fee for Vessels will be levied by the maritime management authorities at the ports of call for the following vessels: vessels owned by US enterprises, other organizations, or individuals; vessels operated by US enterprises, other organizations, or individuals; vessels owned or operated by enterprises or other organizations in which US enterprises, other organizations, or individuals directly or indirectly hold 25% or more equity (voting rights, board seats); vessels flying the US flag; and vessels built in the United States.
