Odfjell posted its 1Q26 results yesterday in the evening, with broadly-in-line figures versus our and consensus expectations. QoQ development paint a slightly bleaker picture, still quite solid in the challenging environment that we currently face. 2Q26 results are expected to be higher than 1Q26 despite the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East. Limited changes to our estimates are likely.
Broadly-in-line figures underpin strong positions in the market
TC earnings ended at USD 167m, in line YoY and QoQ. /day was USD 27,232, down from USD 27,978 in 4Q25, explained by initial negative effects from the conflict in the Middle East Gulf, including increased ballasting, rerouting, and higher provisioning and insurance costs. The company reported EBIT of USD 46m, below our and consensus expectations. Net result came in at USD 32m, lower QoQ, still quite in line YoY. Contract of Affreightment (COA) share of total volumes has been stable over the previous quarters, but fell from 57% to 45% in 1Q26. This is explained by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as Middle East Gulf exports are predominantly contract cargoes. Nonetheless, Odfjell kept strong positions in markets that have strengthened after the conflict started.
Solid performance expected for 2Q26 despite challenging environment
The chemical tanker segment continues to face extreme volatility and shifting trade flows. While Odfjell is well-positioned to capture these elevated spot rates in the short term, the industry faces a divergent outlook. Supply shortages are driving profits, but IMF growth downgrades and the ongoing conflict cloud the long-term outlook. Odfjell expects a prolonged market rebalancing, as even an eventual reopening of the SoH carries an 8-to-18-month lag for petrochemical normalization. Overall, the company guides 2Q26 results to be higher than 1Q26 and we will adjust our estimates accordingly.
Source: Norne Research
