As Maritime Strategies International (MSI) associate director, Todd Jensen, explains, growth in the OSV fleet growth remains measured, with owners focusing on the need to replace older tonnage, rather than embark on newbuilding sprees of the type that have adversely affected it in the past
With five newbuild orders in 2026 to date – four anchor-handling /supply (AHTS) vessels and one platform supply vessel (PSV) – primarily for Middle Eastern operators, ordering activity has normalised following the post-2023 surge, with future contracting expected to be driven mainly by fleet renewal, rather than expansion.
Although vessel removals remain near historic lows, the arrival of new tonnage is expected to accelerate the retirement of older vessels, with geopolitical risks in the Middle East posing a potential constraint on vessel availability and redeployment.
OSV rates are forecast to strengthen through 2027–2028, with Middle East 5,000-5,500 bhp AHTS vessel rates expected to peak at around US$15,/day. Larger AHTS vessels continue to command the strongest returns, with Brazilian 17,000–18,000 bhp units forecast to exceed US$75,/day, while PSV demand remains supported by deepwater developments in West Africa and South America. Rates are expected to soften towards the end of the decade as offshore markets rebalance.
MSI has revised secondhand OSV values slightly upwards since Q1 2026, with levels achieved supported by higher oil prices, limited newbuild activity and a shortage of younger vessels available for acquisition. Transaction activity remained relatively subdued in Q2, but notable sales included DDW Offshore’sSkandi Emerald, sold for US$23M and the sale of two Bourbon AHTS vessels. The ageing global fleet continues to support asset values, while Petrobras’ US$2Bn award to DOF for four new remote operated support (ROV) support vessels highlights continued confidence in long-term offshore demand.
The 2026 Middle East conflict reshaped global oil markets and geopolitics, driving significant supply disruptions, higher energy prices, and a reordering of trade flows. This affected oil prices significantly and, although the market is expected to rebalance over time, the resulting geopolitical fragmentation, supply chain realignment, and increased focus on energy security are likely to have lasting implications beyond the immediate crisis, not least in the OSV sector.
EPC contracting weakened in H1 2026, with circa US$15.2Bn awarded by mid-June. Brazil continues to dominate activity through major Petrobras’ floating production storage and offloading unit and subsea umbilical, risers and flowline awards. Selective investment persists across the Middle East, West Africa, Southeast Asia, the UK and Guyana, and MSI is tracking a US$31.1Bn global tender pipeline led by the Middle East and West Africa. Looking ahead at other drivers of demand for OSVs, fixed platform numbers are forecast to decline 4% by 2030 due to increased decommissioning, while floating platforms are expected to grow 4% to 540 units, driven by deepwater developments in West Africa and South America.
