OPEC appears extremely optimistic about the oil market’s prospects, amidst concerns from international organizations and analysts about a crude oil oversupply in 2026.
Specifically, according to a recent OPEC report, global oil supply is expected to “match” demand in 2026, as OPEC+ gradually increases its production. This forecast reverses OPEC’s previous estimates, which spoke of a significant supply deficit next year, of 700,000 barrels per day.
In particular, OPEC expects an increase in global oil demand of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and a slightly faster rate in 2026. These forecasts are at the highest end of the industry’s estimates, as the Organization expects a slower energy transition compared to other bodies, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA). At the same time, the report mentions that OPEC+ increased its production in September by 630,000 barrels per day, to 43.05 million barrels per day.
Therefore, OPEC’s estimates suggest a marginal crude supply deficit in 2026, of approximately 50,000 barrels per day. In contrast, the IEA “sees” a surplus next year, which will reach up to 3.3 million barrels per day.
