Russia – despite heavy sanctions and international isolation – is quietly playing a key role in cushioning global commodity markets from the full impact of the war with Iran and collapse in energy exports from the Middle East.
Russian exports of LNG have scaled record highs so far in 2026, while the country’s shipments of crude oil and thermal coal have risen to multi-year highs to help offset some of the record-large declines in flows from Middle East producers.
When compared to the increases in energy exports from the United States this year, the growth in Russian shipments appears small, and so it has been largely overlooked in most energy market balance assessments.
But Russia’s share of global year-to-date exports of liquefied natural gas, crude oil and coal is at its highest in years, providing far-flung consumers with much-needed energy supplies just as global markets are in disarray.
This set-up presents an uncomfortable truth for policymakers, who must acknowledge that the same actor that is disrupting energy systems in Europe is acting as a stabiliser globally, and is helping limit energy shortages in key markets.
Growth spurt
Much of the Russian export momentum was gleaned from a temporary easing in sanctions on Russian crude oil and refined products by the US government, which sought to ensure major oil importers had alternate purchase options after Iran blocked ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in early March.
And shipping data from Kpler reveals that Russian exporters took full advantage of the reprieve, lifting LNG volumes by 12.3 per cent from the year before to a record 13.4 million tonnes during the January 1 through May 11 period.
Total Russian shipments of crude oil and condensate increased by around two million tonnes or by 2.2 per cent from a year ago to 91.3 million tonnes, which was the highest for that time span since 2023.
Russian exports of thermal coal climbed by three per cent from early 2025 to 34 million tonnes, which again was the highest volume shipped out during the January 1 through May 11 period since 2023.
Share swell
The higher volumes helped Russia increase its share of global energy product exports so far this year, Kpler data shows.
From the start of the year through May 11, Russia accounted for 8.4 per cent of global LNG exports, which was the country’s highest share for that period since 2022 and compared to a 7.7 per cent share during the same months in 2025.
The 1.5 million-tonne increase in Russian LNG export volumes compared to 2025 has been overshadowed by the 16.2 million-tonne fall in LNG exports from the Middle East so far in 2026.
However, when added to the 9.2 million-tonne increase in LNG exports from the US this year, Russian cargoes have helped to soften the blow from the Middle East turmoil and limit price increases posted by global natural gas markets.
Indeed, spot LNG prices in Asia – the top LNG importing region – have declined by nearly $10 per million British thermal units since scaling a three-year peak in March, thanks to steady increases in global LNG export
volumes in recent weeks.
Global oil markets have also been impacted by higher Russian supplies, which have posted their first annual increase during the January through May 11 window since 2023.
Awkward accommodation
While higher Russian energy export flows are having a dampening effect on crude, LNG and coal markets, they are also generating critical revenues for Moscow even as Russia remains isolated from the international community following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
This in turn underscores the dilemma facing policymakers who aim to reduce Russian influence as punishment for waging war in Europe.
Like it or not, Russia has been able to weather the sanctions imposed by the West fairly well in recent years, mainly by diverting shipments from former major customers in Europe to fast-growing markets in Asia.
This re-routing of cargo flows has meant that Russia’s LNG, oil and coal remain staple ingredients in the global energy diet, even as the location of their consumption has shifted.
Many major energy product consumers are likely grateful for Russia’s staying power, as a more dramatic decline in Russian production and exports of energy products would have resulted in even more acute market tightness in the wake of the Iran war.
Russia’s enduring presence in the energy export realm also underscores the harsh reality that in times of energy market turmoil, buyers will turn to whoever can supply the molecules needed, regardless of their standing among peer nations.
For now, those exports are acting as a critical pressure valve in key energy markets, limiting price spikes and the damage done to several price-sensitive economies.
If that valve were to be fully shut off, markets could face far starker shortages and even more painful energy price spikes.
(Reporting by Gavin Maguire; Editing by Sonali Paul)
