According to a July 21 report on the Spanish website El Economista, US President Trump’s tariff policy is achieving the goal that has most puzzled economists for the real estate tycoon: plunging US international trade into trouble. The impact of the tariff policy has already manifested at ports. Data from Bloomberg News shows that in June, the number of imported containers received by US ports declined for the second consecutive month, marking the first negative growth in the second quarter since 2020.
According to the monthly report released by trade analyst John McCown on the 20th, the number of inbound containers in the US fell by 7.9% year-on-year in June, following a 6.6% decline in May.
The report aggregates data from the top 10 US ports.
The sharp declines in May and June completely offset the nearly 10% growth achieved in April. At that time, businesses accelerated purchases before the tariff measures took effect to utilize inventory in the coming months. However, this effect has now been exhausted, resulting in a 1.8% year-on-year decline in container volume for the second quarter.
McCown noted that in his memory, there have only been two periods of annual container volume decline: during the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Both declines were short-lived. McCown stated, “The 2025 decline will undoubtedly be attributed to the tariff measures, and there is currently no indication that this will be a brief downturn.”
The analyst also pointed out that after a 15% increase in 2024, the total annual import volume in 2025 is highly likely to decline, “which would be one of the most severe annual drops in the 60-year history of US container shipping.”
The weakness in US port maritime trade is also reflected in the freight rates for containers shipped from China to the US West Coast, which have fallen for five consecutive weeks.
McCown noted that a 25% reduction in US container volume is “entirely possible,” which would “directly lead to a $510 billion reduction in the US annual foreign trade volume.” According to McCown’s data, the total value of containerized goods transported through US ports in 2024 was $2.2 trillion. (Compiled by Wang Meng)
