/Reuters Agency
Maersk shares fell on expectations that a ceasefire agreement in Gaza could eventually reestablish container transport routes across the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, alleviating the capacity shortage that has sustained freight rates.
Israel and Hamas agreed on Wednesday, October 8, on the first phase of the Gaza plan from US President Donald Trump, raising hopes that Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi forces may stop attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Such aggressions have forced carriers to divert their routes to southern Africa since late 2023.
However, the Houthis have not yet commented on the ceasefire agreement nor given signals of a change in their policy. The group claimed responsibility for attacking a vessel operated by the Netherlands last week.
Shares of the Danish shipping company fell 2% at 10:25 GMT, reaching their lowest level since July 8. “Maersk is falling due to the expectation of new reductions in freight rates, in relation to a higher probability of safe transit through the Red Sea,” commented Sydbank analyst Mikkel Emil Jensen.
Analysts warned that, even if the ceasefire holds, shipping companies are likely to wait several months before having guarantees that attacks will not resume.
A Maersk spokesperson reiterated that the group will consider resuming transit through the Red Sea only once a viable and long-term security solution has been established.
“There is a clear link between the security risks in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the conflict in Gaza, although it is still too early to assess how progress in Gaza will influence the situation in the Red Sea,” he stated.
“We hope this agreement marks the first step towards ending the conflict and achieving a lasting peace,” he added.
A return to the Suez Canal would increase available transport capacity and exert more pressure on freight rates, which have already decreased from the highs recorded earlier this year, according to analysts from Sydbank and ABG Sundal Collier.
