Qatar’s LNG export machine has suffered its most severe disruption in more than two decades, with analysts warning that while flows could partially recover within months, a full return to pre-war levels may take years.
Data compiled by tanker and gas analyst Nikolas Zannikos at AXSMarine shows just how sharp the drop has been. After nearly a decade of steady monthly exports in the 5.6m–7.8m tonne range, shipments collapsed to 0.47m tonnes in March and just 0.23m tonnes in April.
Year-to-date exports stand at 14.85m tonnes, against a nine-year average of 27.1m tonnes for the same period — a shortfall of roughly 12m tonnes in just four months, equivalent to around 15% of a typical full-year output.
“The scale of the shock is unprecedented,” Zannikos noted, pointing out that January and February 2026 were still tracking within normal historical ranges before flows fell off a cliff following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent strikes on Ras Laffan.
The disruption was triggered by a combination of geopolitical and operational shocks, including the shutdown of Hormuz transit routes and missile strikes on liquefaction Trains 4 and 6 in mid-March, which knocked out a chunk of capacity.
Three-phase recovery path
According to AXSMarine, the recovery will unfold in three distinct phases, each with very different timelines.
In the first phase, exports are expected to resume within weeks of a durable ceasefire, initially running at 10–25% of pre-war capacity as trapped cargoes are cleared and undamaged trains restart. Within two to three months, output could climb to around 50% of capacity, assuming stable shipping access through Hormuz.
The second phase, covering the restart of operable trains, is likely to stretch into late Q3 or Q4 2026. LNG facilities require careful cryogenic recommissioning after shutdowns, typically taking four to eight weeks per train, with restarts constrained by shared utilities and sequencing requirements across the complex.
By that point, analysts expect up to 80% of pre-war capacity to be back online.
The final phase — restoring full output — is where timelines extend significantly. With two major trains offline and critical equipment requiring replacement, Zannikos estimates that the remaining 20% of capacity may not return before 2028 at the earliest.
QatarEnergy has already indicated repair timelines of three to five years for the damaged trains, reflecting tight global supply of key components from a limited number of manufacturers.
Shipping constraints and force majeure
Even as production gradually recovers, export volumes will remain heavily dependent on safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Zannikos noted that April cargoes have been limited to intra-Gulf deliveries, highlighting how restricted shipping routes continue to cap volumes.
QatarEnergy has declared force majeure on long-term contracts following the March strikes, leaving buyers across Asia and Europe scrambling for replacement cargoes. Much of that demand has shifted to the US Gulf Coast, where new capacity from terminals such as Plaquemines, Corpus Christi and Sabine Pass has helped cushion the global supply shock.
LNG Canada has also begun contributing volumes after its first cargoes in 2025.
Drewry: recovery hinges on geopolitics
UK consultancy Drewry echoes the view that recovery timelines are highly uncertain and closely tied to developments in the Middle East.
The firm estimates that around 8.4m tonnes of LNG supply has already been lost or disrupted since the start of the conflict, with that figure potentially rising to 60m tonnes by the end of 2026 if conditions persist.
Despite reports of LNG carriers preparing to resume Hormuz transits, Drewry said it has not observed any meaningful movement via AIS tracking, suggesting that shipowners remain cautious.
“We believe transits will not return to normal until tensions in the region recede and a concrete agreement between the US and Iran is reached,” the consultancy said.
Drewry also highlighted that the impact goes beyond immediate outages. Damage to key trains has removed 12.8m tonnes per annum of capacity for several years, while delays are now expected across Qatar’s massive expansion programme.
Projects under the North Field expansion — including North Field East and North Field South — are likely to slip from their original timelines, with some start-ups pushed beyond 2027.
Outlook: months for recovery, years for full normalisation
Taken together, both analyses point to a staggered recovery path.
Partial exports could resume within weeks of a sustained ceasefire, with near-normal operating levels — around 80% of capacity — potentially achievable within six to nine months. However, a full return to pre-disruption output is unlikely before 2028.
In the meantime, the global LNG market will continue to adjust, with Atlantic Basin supply playing a larger role and buyers diversifying sourcing strategies to manage ongoing uncertainty.
