A rapid unwinding of the shadow fleet of tankers that transfer Russian oil and oil products outside the western financial system, and which therefore are not subject to the western price cap on such products, could cause a severe global economic shock, according to a new report from shipbrokers BRS.
As tracked by BRS the shadow / grey fleet has grown in size by 17% this year, now numbering 787 units and equivalent to 8.5% of total tanker capacity.
More large ships were being classed as “grey”, meaning that the amount of tanker tonnage by dwt stands at what BRS described as a “staggering” 93.7m dwt. That represents 13.7% of total tanker tonnage. One of the reasons for the growth in the shadow fleet this year has been the reimposition of sanctions on Venezuela. BRS warned that “although regulators and governments are evidently keeping an eye on the grey fleet, its enormous size now arguably makes it harder to regulate, since potentially excluding 13.7% of global tonnage would send tanker markets into an upward spiral, potentially causing an unwanted economic shock”.
BRS’s suggestion was that any further regulation needed to be gradual and targeted. This would reduce the chance of injecting undue volatility into the markets.
