Mar 25, 2025 (Bloomberg) –Russia’s oil exports rose to a five-month high while US-initiated talks aimed at achievinga ceasefire in theUkraine conflict drag on.
Crude flows from all Russian ports in the four weeks to March 23 edged up to 3.45 million barrels a day, thehighest since the period to Oct. 20. The increase came despite a slump in weekly flows, driven by fewer shipments from the Baltic and Black Sea.
Crude exports have been boosted by a new short-haul customer in the Mediterranean —post-Assad Syria. A first cargo of Russian crude, carried on a tanker sanctioned by the US, arrived at the Syrian port of Baniyas late last week. Three more vessels, allblacklisted by Washington, appear to beon their way.
UShopesof achieving a broad ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine are unlikely to be realized any time soon. Discussions between American and Russian teams in the Saudi Arabia capital Riyadh on Monday focused onsafety of navigationin the Black Sea, but the Kremlinsaid itwon’t disclosedetails of the 12 hours of negotiations. President Donald Trump’s assertion that he would end the war in day has run up against a Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, whose forces aremaking gains on the battlefield.
Earlier difficulties in discharging some Russian cargoes continue to ease.
Three tankers hauling crude from Murmansk are signaling destinations in India. While the ships themselves haven’t been sanctioned by the US, they have been blacklisted by the UK and the European Union, and the cargoes spent part of their journey on US-sanctioned shuttle tankers and passed through a sanctioned floating storage unit. It remains to be seen whether the cargoes will be accepted at India’s ports, where they are due to arrive toward the end of the month.
In the Pacific, cargoes of crude from the two Sakhalin projects continue to be transferred from sanctioned shuttles onto other ships in Nakhodka Bay for onward delivery to China.
At least three cargo switches took place last week. A combination of the vessels disappearing from digital tracking systemsand heavy cloud cover obscuring satellite imagery has made it impossible to immediately identify the receiving vessels. A fourth cargo transfer took place off Hong Kong.
About 2.1 million barrels of Russia’s Pacific crude remains on tankers that have been idle for at least seven days;that’s half the amount seen last week and down from 9 million barrels a month ago.
A total of 28 tankers loaded 21.2 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to March 23, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volumewas down sharply from a revised 24.88 million barrels on 33 ships the previous week.
Crude flows in the seven daysto March 23stoodatabout 3.03million barrels a day, a week-on-week declineof about 530,000 barrels a day.
The drop was driven by lower shipments of Russian Urals crude from the Baltic and Black Sea ports.
Despite the slump, the less volatile four-week average flows edged higher toabout 3.45 million barrels a day, compared with a revised 3.42 million in the period to March 16. On this measure, shipments hittheir highest level since October.
Two cargoes of Kazakhstan’s KEBCO crude were loaded during the week from Novorossiysk.
The gross value of Moscow’s exports fell by about $190 million, or 13%,to$1.27billion in the week to March 23, with the lower flows more than offsetting a gainin weekly average prices.
Export values of Russian Urals crude from theBaltic cargoes rose by about $0.70 a barrel, while those loading in the Black Sea were up by about $1.10 a barrel. The price of key Pacific grade ESPO rose by about $1.30. Delivered prices in India were up by about $0.70, all according to numbers from Argus Media.
On a four-week average basis, income was virtually unchanged in the period to March 23 at about $1.45 billiona week. Using this measure, an increase in flows almost exactly offset lower prices.
Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, were little changed at3.17 million barrels a day in the four weeks to March 23, keeping them near their highest in 10 months.
The figures include about 600,000 barrels a day on ships from western ports showing their destination as Port Said or the Suez Canal and another 50,000 barrels a day on vessels yet to show a destination.
Russia has added a second short-haul destination for crude from its western ports, with the first cargo arriving at the Syrian port of Baniyas last week; attempts to reach the manager of the ship by email were unsuccessful.Three more are on their way, according to signals from the ships soon after leaving the Arctic port of Murmansk and shipping information seen by Bloomberg.
Exports to Syria averaged 100,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to March 23.
Flows to Turkeyin the same period averaged about 160,000 barrels a day, unchanged fromthe period to March 16.Turkey’s isdiversifyingits crude suppliesafter its largest refiner moved torestrict purchasesof Russian barrels in the wake of sweeping US sanctions.
This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be onTuesday, April 1.
All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. Thoseare shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.
Bloomberg classifies ship-to-ship transfers as clandestine if automated position signals appear to beswitched off or falsified —a tactic known as spoofing—to hide the two vessels involved coming together to make the cargo switch.
Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other informationproviders including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd.
To contact the author of this story:
Julian LeeinLondonat[emailprotected]
