Macroeconomic Pressures Driving Market Sentiment
The global macroeconomic environment continues to shape the trajectory of commodity markets in 2025. The U.S. dollar has been in a steady decline, pressured by growing concerns over expanding budget deficits and aggressive tariff posturing. President Trump’s ongoing tariff threats have intensified trade tensions while his “Big Beautiful Bill”—expected to pass later this year—is likely to contribute significantly to projected U.S. fiscal deficits. These concerns have led investors to reduce dollar exposure, favoring alternative assets such as gold.
Simultaneously, geopolitical risk remains high. The fragile ceasefire in the Middle East raises the prospect of renewed disruption to global oil supplies. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified, with Russia advancing further into eastern Ukraine. Diplomatic efforts have stalled, and Ukraine’s recent battlefield setbacks appear to have strengthened Russia’s strategic posture. These global tensions are contributing to a growing demand for safe-haven and inflation-hedging assets.
Precious Metals Shine Amid Uncertainty
Gold and silver have emerged as the top-performing sectors in the commodity complex this year, largely benefiting from the macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop. Gold has gained traction as both a reserve currency alternative and a hedge against potential inflation stemming from tariff-driven cost increases. While the bulk of these gains occurred in the first quarter, precious metals continue to play a pivotal role in year-to-date commodity performance.
Index Performance: Divergence Driven by Allocation
In the second quarter, the UBS Constant Maturity Commodity Index (CMCITR) posted a modest decline of approximately 1.76%, while the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) fell more sharply by 3.08%. This was driven by CMCI’s lower exposure to natural gas—a weaker segment in the quarter—and a comparatively higher allocation to industrial metals, which showed greater resilience.
However, BCOM stronger year-to-date return of 5.53%, compared to CMCITR’s 3.27% was largely attributable to BCOM’s higher allocation to the precious metals sector, which has more than offset relative weaknesses in other areas. These differences underscore how sector weights and index design continue to drive divergence in performance.
Outlook: A Constructive Setup for Commodities
If current macro trends persist—particularly U.S. dollar weakness and rising geopolitical risk—commodities may benefit in the second half of 2025. Inflation fears tied to tariff escalation, coupled with fiscal uncertainty, could provide further tailwinds to both industrial and precious metals, while energy markets remain sensitive to global supply shocks. Against this backdrop, investor interest in commodities as both tactical plays and strategic hedges is likely to remain strong.
Learn more about the VanEck CM Commodity Index Fund and the VanEck CMCI Commodity Strategy ETF (CMCI), which seek to track, before fees and expenses, the CMCITR.
Source: VanEck
