Nrf forecasts monthly declines starting in August, with more pronounced drops during the fall
Washington – With new tariffs putting pressure on international trade, the National Retail Federation (Nrf) has released new forecasts for U.S. imports, estimating a 5.6% decline by the end of 2025, equivalent to 1.4 million fewer teu compared to last year. The federation, which represents American retail trade, has revised its estimates multiple times throughout the year following the introduction, suspension, or postponement of new tariffs.
Now the situation has stabilized, and Nrf predicts monthly declines starting in August, with sharper drops during the fall. In the first half of 2025, retail imports at major U.S. ports still reached 12.53 million teu, marking a 3.6% annual increase despite uncertainty surrounding trade policy. However, Nrf notes that the reciprocal tariffs introduced by Donald Trump have begun to take effect, alongside the first new trade agreements. Although some major deals still need to be finalized, the federation believes the market is starting to stabilize.
Ben Hacker of Hacker Associates anticipates a significant slowdown in trade volumes by late September, indicating that holiday season inventories will already be stocked in warehouses. Hacker also notes that U.S. exporters will be affected by these dynamics, but the report ends here.
