Since 2025, influenced by the relatively sluggish global economy and disruptions from international political events, international shipping freight rates have fluctuated around median levels, new ship orders have significantly corrected, and new ship prices have loosened from their highs. Looking ahead, the underlying logic of the current shipbuilding market cycle has not changed. Driven by factors such as the renewal of aging vessels and the industry’s green and intelligent transformation, the global shipbuilding market’s major boom cycle is expected to continue. However, the short-term market will still face phased downward pressure, and the industrial competitive landscape is quietly being reshaped.
01. Overall median fluctuation in shipping rates, significant downturn in LNG carrier and car carrier shipping markets
Since the beginning of this year, the international shipping market has generally experienced volatile increases but remains at a median historical level. The Clarkson Shipping Index (a weighted average of earnings for tankers, bulk carriers, container ships, and gas carriers) rose from $21,/day in January to $29,/day in October, an increase of 38.0%; the January-October average was $25,/day, up 1.3% year-on-year. Looking at specific ship types, the freight indices for bulk carriers and crude oil tankers increased significantly by 114.6% and 39.5% respectively during the year, while freight rates for LNG carriers and LPG carriers saw slight increases of 9.0% and 8.6% respectively. In contrast, container ship and car carrier freight rates (indices) fell sharply by 35.1% and 34.6% respectively. Meanwhile, the January-October average freight rates for major ship types all decreased year-on-year, with LNG carriers and car carriers falling by over 50%. From January to October, the average BDTI (crude oil tanker index) and BCTI (product tanker index) fell by 24.1% and 10.5% year-on-year respectively; the average BDI (bulk carrier index) and CCFI (container ship index) fell by 13.7% and 22.9% year-on-year respectively; the average 1-year time charter rate for 84,000 cubic meter VLGCs fell by 20.7% year-on-year; the average spot rate for 174,000 cubic meter LNG carriers and the average 1-year time charter rate for 6,500 CEU car carriers fell by 53.7% and 53.0% year-on-year respectively.
Regarding the market outlook, the global shipping market will continue to face a complex and volatile external environment. Multiple factors such as slowing economic growth, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and unresolved environmental regulations will profoundly impact market trends. It is expected that the growth rate of global seaborne trade volume will remain low in 2026. However, structural differentiation among various market segments will become more pronounced. Among them, the crude oil tanker and bulk carrier markets are expected to maintain relatively good freight rate levels due to short-term supply-side efforts (OPEC+ production increases and the Simandou iron ore project coming online). Product tankers, car carriers, and liquefied gas carriers are expected to see little improvement in freight rates due to short-term oversupply. Container ship freight rates will exhibit complex trends influenced by international geopolitics, global economic growth levels, and their own supply-demand dynamics.
Figure 1. Clarkson Shipping Index Trend (Monthly Average) Data Source: Clarksons, China State Shipbuilding Corporation Economic Research Center.
Table 1. Changes in Freight Rates or Indices for Major Ship Types, Jan-Oct 2025 Data Source: Clarksons, China State Shipbuilding Corporation Economic Research Center.
02. Significant decline in global new ship orders, but this year remains relatively good
Since the beginning of this year, the misalignment between high new ship prices and relatively low freight rates, coupled with the impact of US tariff policies and Section 301 investigation restrictions, has intensified shipowner wait-and-see sentiment, leading to a significant contraction in global new ship orders. From January to October, a total of 1,632 new ship orders were placed globally, totaling 94.87 million deadweight tons (DWT), a year-on-year decrease of 44.5%. Looking at major ship types, the weakness in product tanker demand was particularly prominent, with orders for 3.161 million DWT, down 84.9% year-on-year; the decline in crude oil tankers was relatively smaller, with orders for 19.454 million DWT, down 30.8% year-on-year; the order volumes for bulk carriers, LNG carriers, and LPG carriers were 22.148 million, 1.992 million, and 1.327 million DWT respectively, all down over 50% year-on-year; container ships were the only ship type to see an increase, with orders totaling 41.062 million DWT, up 0.9% year-on-year by DWT, accounting for 43.3% of all orders during the period.
Figure 2. Global New Ship Order Placement Situation Data Source: Clarksons, China State Shipbuilding Corporation Economic Research Center.
Table 2. Order Placement Situation for Major Ship Types Data Source: Clarksons, China State Shipbuilding Corporation Economic Research Center.
Figure 3. Proportion of Orders by Major Ship Type (by DWT) Data Source: Clarksons, China State Shipbuilding Corporation Economic Research Center.
A full-year decline in new ship orders is certain, but they are expected to reach around 120 million DWT, which is still at a relatively good historical level. From January to October, global cumulative orders reached 94.87 million DWT. Although this is a significant decrease compared to the same period last year, it is still 3.9% and 27.1% higher than the average annual order volumes during the “12th Five-Year Plan” (2011-2015) and “13th Five-Year Plan” (2016-2020) periods, which were 91.299 million DWT and 74.634 million DWT respectively. As time passes, some shipowners are gradually adapting to the uncertainties in the global economy and shipping market, and some pent-up demand may be gradually released.
The global shipbuilding industry during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period is expected to remain in a major boom cycle, but faces risks of short-term fluctuations and phased adjustments. The current global fleet has a large number of aging vessels, and the overarching trend towards green and low-carbon development in the global maritime industry will not reverse. The underlying logic of this market cycle has not changed. In November, China and the US suspended mutual port fees, providing the shipping industry with a brief respite. However, the short-term market still faces disruptions such as weak economic growth, tariff policies and major power competition, uncertain green development technology pathways, and shipowners’ investment decisions influenced by the combination of declining shipping rates and high ship prices. The risk of a phased downturn has increased, and the shipbuilding market will still face downward pressure in the early part of the “15th Five-Year Plan” period. We estimate that the average annual demand in the global shipbuilding market during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period will be about 110 million DWT, or 42 million compensated gross tons (CGT), a decrease of about 20% from the average during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, but still about 50% higher than the average during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period.
03. New ship prices loosen from highs, but supporting factors remain for the future
New ship prices are at historical highs but have loosened slightly from their peaks. The new ship price index closed at 184.9 points in October, down 2.4% from the beginning of the year and down 2.5% year-on-year. By ship type, the new ship price indices for container ships, bulk carriers, liquefied gas carriers, and tankers closed at 115.7 points, 211.8 points, 167.4 points, and 198.6 points respectively in October, down 2.4%, 3.3%, 3.5%, and 5.0% from the beginning of the year, and down 1.4%, 4.5%, 4.4%, and 5.1% year-on-year respectively. However, looking at future trends, factors supporting high ship prices still exist. Although current new ship prices have loosened due to the contraction in order volume, positive factors on both the supply and demand sides, such as the scrapping of aging vessels, demand release for green vessel renewal, and the difficulty in rapidly expanding high-quality shipbuilding capacity in the short term, along with full order books and capacity bottlenecks, continue to support high price levels.
Figure 4. Clarkson Newbuilding Price Index Trend Data Source: Clarksons, China State Shipbuilding Corporation Economic Research Center.
Figure 5. Trends in Newbuilding Price Indices by Ship Type Data Source: Clarksons, China State Shipbuilding Corporation Economic Research Center.
04. China’s market share remains first, South Korea’s market share shows growth
China’s overall market share remains the highest globally, but faces catching-up trends from South Korea and Japan in important segments. From January to October, Chinese shipyards received orders for 60.086 million DWT, accounting for 63.3% of global orders during the same period. This maintains a clear leading advantage compared to South Korea’s 23.278 million DWT (24.5% market share) and Japan’s 7.212 million DWT (7.6% market share). However, looking at specific ship types, China mainly maintained its leading advantage in bulk carriers and container ships, while South Korea and Japan continued to capture market share in liquefied gas carriers and tankers. In LNG carriers, from January to October, South Korean shipyards received orders for 23 ships, totaling 2.922 million cubic meters, while China only received orders for 15 ships, totaling 0.296 million cubic meters, accounting for 9.0% of the volume, and all large LNG carriers were taken by South Korean shipyards. In LPG carriers, Chinese and South Korean shipyards almost split the market share in 2024, but from January to October this year, Japanese and South Korean shipyards received large orders, and Chinese shipyards’ market share was captured by Japanese shipyards, dropping from 47.0% in 2024 to 21.3%. In crude oil tankers, China’s market share was as high as 71.7% in 2024 but dropped to 36.2% from January to October this year. In product tankers, China’s market share was as high as 86.9% in 2024 but dropped to 46.4% from January to October this year.
Chinese shipyards still hold an advantage in the field of green-powered vessels, and China’s leading position in the global shipbuilding market will not change. From January to October, the market shares of China, South Korea, and Japan in new orders for green-powered vessels were 65.0%, 28.8%, and 4.4% respectively (by DWT). Looking ahead, Chinese shipyards possess technological resilience in emerging fields like green-powered vessels and have a strong ability to withstand external shocks. Considering the shipbuilding capacity bottlenecks in South Korea and Japan, China’s comprehensive competitive advantages in shipbuilding, and the resilience of its industrial development, the competitive landscape of the global shipbuilding industry will not undergo a disruptive reshuffle, and China’s leading position in the global shipbuilding market will not change.
Table 3. Market Share of Major Ship Types for China, South Korea, and Japan in 2024 and Jan-Oct 2025 Data Source: Clarksons, China State Shipbuilding Corporation Economic Research Center.
Authors: Yang Yuebin, Liu Ersen, Luo Zhanglong
