As long as Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, the global economy is beginning to feel more and more intensely the cost of a crisis that threatens to evolve into a new energy and inflationary shock.
The oil market held up during the first months of the crisis thanks to huge commercial and strategic reserves. But now the “safety cushions” are being depleted at a faster rate than ever. And as long as the traffic of oil and products through Hormuz remains restricted, the risk of a domino effect on energy, transport, industry and consumers increases.
According to UBS, global oil reserves fell from just over 8 billion barrels at the end of February to 7.8 billion barrels at the end of April. If the situation continues, they could approach the historic lows of 7.6 billion barrels as early as the end of May.
JPMorgan warns that behind the huge numbers lies a much more fragile reality: only about 800 million barrels are considered truly available without “strangling” the transport and distribution system.
“Like with blood pressure in the human body, the problem is circulation,” explains JPMorgan’s head of commodities strategy, Natasha Kaneva. “The system does not collapse because oil disappears, but because the circulation network no longer has sufficient operating volume.”
This picture is causing growing concern in the markets, as Hormuz is the most important energy “artery” of the planet. About one-fifth of the world’s oil and a large part of LNG cargoes pass through there.
At the same time, the crisis has already violently changed the transport map.
Shipping giants such as Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd have activated alternative land routes through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey and Iraq, attempting to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Companies are now transporting containers from ports in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman to their final destination by truck. The problem is that land routes can only replace a small fraction of the capacity offered by large container ships.
Before the war, about 135 ships passed through the Strait daily. Today, only a minimal number pass through, while dozens of ships have been attacked.
The result is already visible in transport costs.
The cost of transporting a 20ft (6-meter) container from Shanghai to the Gulf and the Red Sea skyrocketed from $980 before the war to $4,131 within a few weeks — surpassing even pandemic levels. This is an increase of 321%.
On some routes to Dubai, prices quadrupled, reaching over $8,000 for a 40ft container.
The increase is not only due to the shortage of ships, but also:
Fertilizer companies in Saudi Arabia now transport loads by road for 14-15 hours, with an additional cost of $80-90 per ton.
The effects are already spreading to the real economy.
Tata Consumer Products warns of delays of up to 60 days for products heading to the Middle East.
Shipping executives describe a “nightmarish” situation in the supply chain, with containers stranded in ports in India, Mozambique and Sri Lanka.
Even humanitarian aid is affected.
The United Nations World Food Programme reports that food shipments are arriving with delays of over 40 or even 60 days due to forced detours.
Analysts warn that the market is approaching a point where prices will have to skyrocket not just out of fear, but to destroy demand and prevent the complete draining of reserves.
Rapidan Energy estimates that this could happen even before the third quarter of 2026.
The big question now is not only how expensive oil will become. It is how quickly the energy crisis will pass:
Because when the Strait of Hormuz is “blocked,” it is not only the flow of oil that is threatened. The very circulation of the global economy is threatened.
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