Shippingjie.com news, In the first half of 2025, the tanker market was significantly impacted by US policies. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Gibson pointed out, “Since 2020, the market has experienced ‘rollercoaster’ volatility almost every year, and the first six months of 2025 were no exception. Numerous factors influence the tanker market, and Trump’s return to the White House was undoubtedly a catalyst for much of the volatility and uncertainty. Geopolitics, international relations, trade, conflict, regulation, and decarbonization are all intertwined, making the market outlook arguably as variable as at any time in the past five years.”
In its comprehensive analysis of the first-half tanker market, Gibson highlighted the multiple factors creating uncertainty for shipowners.
Far-reaching Impact of US Policy
Gibson stated: “Trump’s second term and its foreign policy are undoubtedly the most critical factors. From imposing sanctions to waging trade wars, to airstrikes.”
In fact, the outgoing Biden administration gave the tanker market a “final gift” – sanctions on 156 tankers, which forced Indian refiners to temporarily turn to West Africa, the Americas, and the Middle East for alternative oil sources, thereby boosting demand for VLCCs and Suezmax tankers. Although this surge was relatively short-lived as Russian supply chains adjusted, it set the tone for a turbulent 2025.
After Trump returned to the White House, despite frequent executive orders, their initial impact on the tanker market was limited. He then quickly turned his focus to Venezuelan exports, announcing that export licenses would expire in May. Iran soon became a new target, with the US announcing a policy of “maximum pressure,” introducing new sanctions almost daily, causing market shocks.
Furthermore, the US Trade Representative (USTR) initiated a “Section 301 investigation” into China’s shipbuilding and maritime industries, delivering another blow to the market. Ultimately, these measures were significantly weakened in April and postponed for implementation until October. Other protectionist measures included the proposed “American Ships Act,” aimed at revitalizing US shipbuilding by taxing vessels owned/operated by “related foreign entities.”
War and Peace
Gibson said: “Surprisingly, despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, the Russia-Ukraine war situation saw no substantive change, and Trump seemed to abandon his promise of a swift end to the conflict.”
Iran was less fortunate. Before Israel launched a 12-day war against Iran, the Trump administration continued its maximum pressure policy and conducted five rounds of diplomatic negotiations. This war stimulated the tanker market.
As the US completed its airstrikes, Israel quickly announced the achievement of its military objectives. Subsequently, Trump announced a ceasefire agreement, causing oil prices and freight rates to lose their risk premium. The Houthis also became victims of US military strikes, with the Trump administration launching intensive airstrikes against them.
Regarding decarbonization, Gibson noted that in January this year, the EU began implementing fuel regulations requiring ships entering and leaving EU ports to gradually reduce the greenhouse gas intensity of marine fuels, or face economic penalties. The implementation process was relatively smooth, with limited impact on the freight market.
Meanwhile, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) passed a “net-zero” framework, which, if approved, would charge fees based on the greenhouse gas intensity of ship fuels starting in 2028. These measures sparked strong opposition from many countries, with the US directly withdrawing from the negotiations.
Apart from shipping decarbonization measures, the global energy transition process showed regional divergence. China’s electric vehicle sales continued to soar, while crude oil imports declined year-on-year.
OPEC+ Strategic Adjustment
Gibson emphasized that a significant shift in OPEC+ strategy occurred in April, with an agreement to increase production to regain market share, a development worthy of close attention.
Fewer Orders, More Deliveries
On the supply side, newbuilding orders slowed significantly. In the first half of the year, only 106 crude/product tanker orders were signed, a sharp decrease from 301 in the same period of 2024. Meanwhile, vessel deliveries doubled, increasing from 34 in the same period last year to 86. Gibson data shows that only 8 tankers have been scrapped so far this year, roughly in line with 2024.
Gibson concluded: “Asset price performance has been mixed. Newbuilding prices have corrected across the board but remain at levels seen in the first half of 2024. Five-year-old secondhand vessel prices have fallen by 7-13%, with the specific decline varying by vessel type. Overall, secondhand vessel prices remain firm.
