Following the recent US-China “truce” and the decision to suspend mutual port tariffs on October 30 for one year, the signs for bulk carriers appear (more) favorable. According to a Kpler post on social media, the mutual port tariffs were expected to cause strong tremors in the bulk carrier market. The diversion of routes, the longer stay of ships in ports, and ultimately the reduction in supply would have peaked, had the tariffs not been canceled.
With this arrangement, an improvement in the efficiency of the global fleet is expected, as shipowners avoid additional costs and delays. However, freight rates for Capesizes and Panamaxes have moved bearishly recently, influenced by the increase in ballast tonnage in the Pacific and the drop in bunker prices, which reduces operating costs but pressures earnings.
In contrast, Supramaxes and Handysizes face seasonal weakness in the Atlantic, where activity remains subdued, with limited cargoes and lower mobility.
The overall picture points to an impending readjustment of the global fleet employment, as freight markets seek a new equilibrium after the regulatory “respite.” The aforementioned suspension, therefore, acts as a decompression valve for the market, offering stability and preventing further disruptions in the bulk carrier supply chain.
