According to an analysis by Drewry, canceled sailings for the next four weeks will reach 50 blank sailings out of a total of 717 announced departures. On average, 93% of ships are expected to start their journeys as planned.
The consultant indicated that between week 47 (November 17-23) and week 51 (December 15-21) the main routes; that is, the Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-Northern Europe and Mediterranean, will accumulate a cancellation of 7% of total departures.
In the next five weeks, it is contemplated that the majority of blank sailings will take place on the East Transpacific route (62%), followed by Asia-Northern Europe and Mediterranean (24%); and West Transpacific (14%).
“November schedules show 73 canceled port calls on the main East-West routes, a decrease from the 96 in October, which equates to an effective increase of approximately 5% in capacity month-on-month. December is expected to bring slightly higher capacity (+6%) and fewer blank port calls (42), which would keep supply high and limit the potential for an immediate recovery in rates,” Drewry reported.
Furthermore, freight rates have weakened again, as typical low-season demand offers limited support. Drewry’s World Container Index fell 5% week-on-week, standing at $1,859 per 40-foot container on November 13, with Transpacific rates falling 14%, Transatlantic rates falling 2%, and Asia-Mediterranean rates rising 4%.
“With demand still contained and supply abundant, short-term rate fluctuations are likely. Shippers could benefit from early bookings, flexible planning, and close monitoring as carriers navigate this quieter season,” the consultant pointed out.
“The coming months will require agility, as capacity management discipline – more than demand – will continue to set market conditions. For now, cautious optimism prevails, although lasting stability remains uncertain,” it concluded.
