When the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to commercial traffic, 53 container vessels belonging to the world’s top shipping lines found themselves trapped inside the Persian Gulf. Two months on, Kpler’s Container Intelligence data paints a stark picture: 79% are still waiting.
Current situation for container vessels
Of the 53 container vessels initially caught inside when transits became untenable, only nine have successfully exited the Strait. Two of those required a second attempt before making it through. Two MSC vessels were seized by Iranian authorities—the most severe outcome of the crisis. One additional vessel sustained damage after being struck by debris.
That leaves 42 vessels, crews, cargo, and capital in a state of indefinite commercial limbo.
Carrier performance analysis
We track every major carrier’s exposure to this crisis. The data reveals significant variation in outcomes across shipping lines.
CMA CGM: Heaviest absolute exposure
CMA CGM carries the heaviest exposure in absolute terms. With 15 vessels caught inside, the French carrier has managed to extract only two. This represents a 87% entrapment rate for the world’s third-largest container line.
MSC: Most complex situation
MSC’s situation is the most complex. The world’s largest carrier had 14 vessels in the zone and has recorded the only seizures of the crisis—two vessels taken by Iranian authorities. This development has drawn significant attention from maritime insurers and legal teams globally.
Four MSC vessels did manage to exit on their first attempt. However, eight remain inside. The seizure question adds a dimension to their exposure that extends well beyond simple delays.
COSCO: Persistence pays off
COSCO is the one carrier with a story of persistence paying off. Both of its successful exits came on a second transit attempt. This suggests Chinese-flagged tonnage may be navigating a different diplomatic and risk calculus than Western carriers.
Three COSCO vessels remain inside. The two successful breakouts are the only confirmed second-attempt successes across the entire fleet.
Zero escapes: The smaller carriers
Wan Hai, Evergreen, Yang Ming, ONE, and HMM have recorded zero escapes. For these smaller-exposure carriers with one to three vessels each, this represents a 100% entrapment rate. These vessels would have turned around and loaded again two or three times by now under normal operations.
Market implications
Capacity impact
The capacity implications are significant. Fifty-three vessels of assorted sizes represent tens of thousands of TEUs of effective capacity removed from active rotation.
Unlike vessels temporarily idled for maintenance or slow-steaming on long-haul routes, these ships generate zero revenue while still:
• Consuming fuel
• Incurring port costs
• Tying up crews under extraordinary conditions
Impact on cargo owners
For cargo owners—particularly those with supply chains dependent on Gulf petrochemical exports, electronics imports through Jebel Ali, or regional feeder connections—the picture has moved from “disruption” to “structural rerouting.” The few boxes that have escaped command significantly different routing costs via alternative corridors.
Differential impact by cargo type
The impact is not felt equally across cargo types:
• High-value or time-sensitive goods (foodstuffs, pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics) can absorb the premium of landbridge solutions or urgent rerouting.
• Construction materials face a different calculus. The Gulf is a major destination for heavy, voluminous, relatively low-value cargo supplying the region’s numerous active construction sites. For those shipments, a landbridge premium is simply not economically viable. The cargo either waits, or the project does.
What Container Intelligence is watching
The 42 top-carrier vessels still waiting inside the Gulf represent a concentration without modern parallel in container shipping. However, the broader market impact of the Hormuz crisis is where we deliver our clearest value—and where our data is most actionable.
With direct transit through the Strait suspended, cargo flows have been forced to reroute. That pressure does not disappear; it redistributes. We provide the independent, terminal-level view of where it is landing and how hard.
Alternative hubs under the microscope
The ports absorbing diverted Gulf traffic now operate under conditions far outside their historical baseline:
• Salalah (Oman)
• Khor Fakkan (UAE)
• Transshipment hubs across the Indian Ocean
We track congestion index, live vessel queue, and average waiting time across all of them, updated continuously, independently of what any carrier chooses to publish.
Rerouted services and schedule integrity
As carriers adjust rotations to bypass the Gulf, services that previously called Jebel Ali or other Gulf terminals are being restructured or omitting ports entirely. We track every terminal call, announced and unannounced, so planners can see the real updated rotation—not the last version a carrier published before the crisis escalated.
Predictive ETAs on corridors that still move
For cargo moving on the India–Europe, Asia–East Africa, and transpacific corridors that bypass the Gulf entirely, we deliver predictive ETAs up to six weeks or more in advance at terminal level.
These predictions are based on live AIS behavior and congestion patterns—not carrier estimates.
In a market where schedule reliability has collapsed on Gulf-adjacent trades, that independent foresight on routes that are still functioning is where decisions get made.
The terminals to watch right now
These transshipment nodes are most likely to show the first signs of congestion buildup as volumes reroute:
• Khor Fakkan
• Sohar
• Jeddah
We let you spot regional buildup before it cascades—exactly the kind of early warning that separates reactive teams from those who planned ahead.
Frequently asked questions
What should cargo owners do now?
Cargo owners should immediately assess their exposure to Gulf-dependent routes and identify alternative routing options. For time-sensitive cargo, landbridge solutions through the UAE or Saudi Arabia may justify the premium. For bulk or construction materials, contingency planning should include extended delivery timelines and potential sourcing alternatives.
How will this impact shipping costs?
Rates on alternative corridors have already increased significantly. Expect continued upward pressure on India–Europe and Asia–Middle East lanes as capacity constraints intensify. High-value cargo will absorb these costs; low-margin shipments face difficult decisions.
Which carriers have the best track record for navigating this crisis?
Based on the data, COSCO shows the highest escape rate at 40%, with both successful exits coming on second attempts. MSC achieved a 29% escape rate on first attempts but faces the added complexity of two seized vessels. Most other carriers have recorded zero successful exits.
How long will this situation last?
We cannot predict the geopolitical resolution timeline. However, Container Intelligence continuously monitors vessel movements, terminal conditions, and routing patterns to provide the earliest possible indicators of any change in the operating environment.
Source: Kpler
