The United Arab Emirates’ exit from OPEC has stripped the producer group of one of its biggest sources of crude oil capacity and reduced OPEC+’s share of global output, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook for June 2026.
The UAE announced on 28 April 2026 that it would leave OPEC from 1 May, ending a membership dating back to 1967, when Abu Dhabi joined the organisation.
The country produced 3.4m barrels per day of crude oil on average in 2025 and had estimated effective production capacity of 4.2m bpd. That made it OPEC’s third-largest source of crude oil capacity after Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
OPEC, including the UAE, produced an estimated 28m bpd in 2025, or 35% of global crude oil output. Without the UAE, the group’s share would have been 31%.
The broader OPEC+ group accounted for about 46% of global crude oil production in 2025. Excluding the UAE, its share would have been closer to 42%.
Saudi Arabia remained OPEC’s largest producer, with 9.3m bpd of crude output in 2025 and estimated effective production capacity of 11.6m bpd. It was the world’s second-largest crude producer after the US.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia were among the OPEC+ producers that made the largest voluntary output cuts under agreements launched in April 2023, even as the UAE continued to increase production capacity. Later production agreements exempted Iran, Venezuela and Libya.
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the start of the conflict in Iran on 28 February 2026 has lowered regional production and limited OPEC+ members’ ability to raise output.
The UAE has moved crude exports through the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah, outside the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline has maximum capacity of 1.8m bpd, and the UAE intends to double that capacity by 2027.
Saudi Arabia has shifted crude exports to the Red Sea through its 7m-bpd East-West pipeline to Yanbu, with 5m bpd available for exports and the rest used domestically. Those routes have left Saudi Arabia and the UAE with lower relative volumes of shut-in crude production than other Middle Eastern producers dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for access to global markets.
OPEC is an intergovernmental organisation formed in 1960 by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to coordinate petroleum policies among member countries.
OPEC+ is the wider producer framework created in 2016 under the Declaration of Cooperation between OPEC members and non-OPEC participants.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is the statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy.
