New York, 14 May (Argus) — The nearly one-month-old US blockade of Iranian ports has been successful in significantly curtailing Tehran’s oil exports, but it has yet to send Iranian production into the steep decline predicted by US officials.
Prior to the start of the blockade on 13 April, Iran’s waterborne crude exports averaged about 1.8mn b/d. But since then Iran has not successfully exported any crude by sea, according to vessel tracking firm , which defines exports as tankers which made it through the blockade line and have not returned with the oil.
US Central Command (Centcom), which oversees the Middle East-based US forces, claims that 67 commercial vessels have been redirected since the start of the blockade, 15 vessels supporting humanitarian aid were allowed to pass and four vessels were disabled to ensure compliance. But Vortexa data shows 88 vessels carrying energy commodities have circumvented the US’ blockade, with nine reported interdictions by US forces.
The impact of the blockade on crude production is less clear, however.
US president Donald Trump on 26 April predicted that Iranian oil infrastructure would “just explode from within” in “about three days” because of the blockade, forcing oil well shut-ins.
But days later Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohamed Ghalibaf mocked Trump’s claim. “Three days in, no well exploded,” Ghalibaf wrote on social media. “We could extend to 30 and livestream the well here.”
Iranian crude production in April fell by 130,000 b/d from the prior month to 2.95mn b/d, according to Argus estimates, but that decrease is among the lowest for Gulf producers. The modest April decline reflects both the mid-month start to the blockade and the ample available storage capacity onshore and offshore for Iran.
As of the last week of April, Kpler assessed Iran’s onshore usable storage at around 39mn bl, and available floating storage of about 4mn bl, giving it just over a month before having to shut in supply at current production levels — although it could make pre-emptive cuts before then. Vortexa put Iran’s available onshore storage capacity at a little below 40mn bl, but highlighted a significant number of empty tankers which it said could be enough to sustain production at then-current levels for up to two months.
But Consultancy FGE put Iran’s available onshore crude storage capacity at nearly double those figures — at around 80mn bl — implying that Iran would be able to produce at current levels for a little over two months.
US officials have repeatedly emphasized the dire economic impact the blockade ports is having on Iran. “The economic pressure that creates on them greatly outstrips the pressure on us,” US defense secretary Pete Hegseth told a Senate panel on 12 May.
But Iran has shown little outward signs that it is ready to capitulate. The two sides have not returned to face-to-face meetings in weeks, and Iran characterized its most recent offer as “reasonable” and “generous” after Trump labeled it “totally unacceptable.”
By Charlotte Bawol and Nader Itayim
