The United States military launched Project Freedom on Monday, deploying a vast array of naval and air assets to escort stranded commercial vessels out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz – but the operation began against a backdrop of fresh attacks on shipping that cast immediate doubt over its prospects for success.
US Central Command announced that forces began supporting the initiative today by order of president Donald Trump, describing the mission as an effort to restore freedom of navigation through one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. “Our support for this defensive mission is essential to regional security and the global economy as we also maintain the naval blockade,” said Admiral Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander.
The operation involves guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and approximately 15,000 service members. According to the US Navy, traffic will be routed south of the Traffic Separation Scheme via Omani territorial waters – a routing that itself carries significant risk, with USNAVCENT warning that transit via or in close proximity to the Traffic Separation Scheme “should be considered extremely hazardous due to the presence of mines that have not been fully surveyed and mitigated.”
Trump announced the initiative on Sunday, calling it a humanitarian gesture on behalf of nations whose vessels have been stranded in the Gulf since Iran effectively closed the strait following the outbreak of conflict on February 28. Close to 1,000 commercial vessels and 20,000 seafarers remain trapped.
“We have told these countries that we will guide their ships safely out of these restricted waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Yet even as the announcement was made, Iran appeared to signal its intentions. On Sunday, a tanker was struck by unknown projectiles 78 nautical miles north of Fujairah, and a bulk carrier was attacked by multiple small vessels 11 nautical miles west of Sirik while northbound toward the strait. All crew were reported safe in the tanker incident, and the bulk carrier, believed to be the Minoan Falcon, reversed course and repositioned off Fujairah.
Lars Jensen, one of the shipping industry’s most closely followed analysts, noted that three separate incidents were reported by UKMTO in or around Hormuz over the past 24 hours. “The attacks this morning underscore the concern which has been voiced by naval experts in terms of whether the US Navy can effectively stage such a protection convoy,” Jensen wrote on LinkedIn. The Dane has been providing daily coverage of the Hormuz shipping crisis over the past two months.
Jensen drew a parallel with the Red Sea crisis. Even with naval protection available, the ultimate decision rests with commercial shipping companies and their own risk assessments. “This is no different than what we have seen for two and a half years in the Red Sea, where there has also been access to some naval protection, yet many shipping lines opted not to be escorted but preferred to detour around Africa on the basis of their own weighting of safety versus commercial expediency,” Jensen noted.
The mine threat in particular has alarmed naval experts. USNAVCENT’s own advisory acknowledges that the strait has not been fully surveyed or cleared, making even an escorted transit a significant gamble for shipowners and their insurers.
Trump said his representatives are engaged in “very positive discussions” with Iran that could lead to something “very positive for all,” though no details were offered. Iran’s foreign ministry said Sunday it was reviewing the US response to its recent 14-point peace proposal.
