As of October 8, 2025, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) closed at 1963 points, down 303 points from September 25, a decrease of 13.37%. Among the components, the Capesize Index (BCI) fell by 717 points, a drop of 19.69%, and the Panamax Index (BPI) decreased by 140 points, a decline of 7.63%.
In the iron ore market, seaborne ore shipments decreased by 1.964 million tons month-on-month to 32.79 million tons, yet remained at a high level compared to the same period in recent years. Iron ore arrivals at domestic ports saw a rebound, increasing by 2.482 million tons month-on-month to 26.087 million tons. On the demand side, daily hot metal production decreased by 5,500 tons month-on-month to 2.4181 million tons. Hot metal production remains high, while steel mill profit margins continue to decline. During the holiday period, end-user demand dropped significantly, with apparent rebar demand falling sharply month-on-month and inventories accumulating substantially. The post-holiday destocking of steel products faces a significant test, and attention is focused on the recovery of demand after the holiday. Overall, recent seaborne ore arrivals have rebounded, and hot metal production remains strong. In the short term, both supply and demand are robust. After the holiday, steel mill restocking has concluded, and finished steel products have entered the second half of the “Silver October.” The potential for further increases in hot metal production remains highly uncertain.
In the coal market, September saw a trend of “off-season not being weak,” with both thermal coal and coking coal prices showing significant upward trends. As of September 21, thermal coal prices at northern ports generally increased by 25 /ton, with the ex-ship price of Qinhuangdao Port’s Shanxi Superior Mix 5500 kcal climbing to 980 /ton. Domestic coal production rebounded in the short term but still declined year-on-year. Policy impacts limited production, and imports decreased.
In the grain market, the loss of Chinese orders placed U.S. soybeans in a precarious situation in September. For American soybean farmers, the absence of Chinese orders in September meant facing combined pressure from harvest season inventories and cash flow issues. China had already completed its October soybean purchases ahead of schedule this year, with vessel schedules primarily sourced from South America. Conservatively estimated, U.S. soybeans could face losses of up to 16 million tons.
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