Weakening oil demand is leading bunker prices toward multi-year lows by the end of next year.
Ship & Bunker’s latest global average bunker price forecast shows VLSFO averaging about $/mt in Q3 2025 and at $/mt across full-year 2025.
But the global average VLSFO price is now forecast to hold below $/mt throughout 2026 and drop as low as $/mt in the fourth quarter of next year, a level not seen since January 2021 during the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, the Q3 and FY2025 forecasts are up from about $/mt and $/mt, respectively, in the Q2 report published in April, reflecting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keeping prices higher in the near term.
The G20-VLSFO Index of prices at 20 leading bunkering ports averaged $/mt in Q2. April’s Ship & Bunker VLSFO forecast for Q2 was $/mt, just 3.9% below the actual price as it emerged.
Rising global oil inventories amid slowing demand point to a significant price decline over the course of next year. The US/Iran conflict in June temporarily pushed prices higher, and the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices remains elevated for now, but this factor is likely to be outweighed by weakening demand next year.
To view the full set of 2025-2026 quarterly forecasts for VLSFO, HSFO, and MGO at Singapore, Rotterdam, Fujairah, and Houston, as well as on a global basis, click here.
