Weeks away from the election, the economic situation presents challenges.
The fiscal side is consolidated but the external front is fragile. Dollars are lacking. The current account is estimated to have a deficit of 2% of GDP this year. The intervention of the U.S. Treasury alleviates the exchange rate tensions that emerged the week prior to the U.S. announcements. This is a very positive fact that must be leveraged.
On the other hand, the zero withholdings for a short time provide dollars in the supply that compensate for the demand prior to the elections. The exchange rate and monetary issue remains a matter to be reformulated and addressed with the IMF after the electoral event. The outlook is promising in the medium-to-long term regarding a structurally surplus trade balance.
The objective of these lines is to consider the contribution of the most promising export sectors towards 2030.
2007-2025
From 2007 to 2025, export performance has been poor.
The export-to-product ratio is structurally low, but in the coming years, a leap in exports is expected, focused basically on the performance of hydrocarbons and mining.
In Argentina, the proportion of dollars coming from natural resources is US$ 1000 per inhabitant. In Chile, it is US$ 4000 and in Norway, US$ 30,000.
The future is favorable in hydrocarbons (oil and natural gas), due to the potential of Vaca Muerta with unconventional resources. In 2024, the energy balance became positive and a trade surplus of around US$ 35 billion is estimated by 2030. This implies an amount equivalent to the agricultural exports of the humid pampas.
It is estimated that oil, in particular, will grow at a rate of 20% annually in exports in the coming years. This crude is currently exported to the United States, China, Spain, and Brazil. The volatility of the price presents various scenarios of exported value. It is key that the ongoing infrastructure projects carrying out the so-called evacuation of the Neuquén basin are completed. Investments both in up stream and in transport logistics are very important. Vaca Muerta is expected to reach 1.5 million barrels of crude by 2030.
Gas
Regarding natural gas, a process equivalent to that of crude is underway for the deployment of infrastructure, whether through pipelines for transport or as liquefied gas, LNG.
Globally, the growth of LNG exports is 6%, and land transport via pipelines is 3%.
Argentina can be very relevant due to the ongoing projects linked to LNG.
Regarding pipeline transport, the recent addition of infrastructure to reach the Brazilian market through Bolivia stands out. The way to export LNG is through liquefaction processes using ships designed for this purpose.
Ultimately, a relevant energy trade balance is expected by 2030, primarily with the contribution of gas and crude oil from Vaca Muerta.
Mining
The other sector with great potential to bring foreign currency to the economy is mining.
It is known that Chile has been very productive in this sector for years, mainly with copper (US$ 55 billion in annual exports).
Argentina has metallic resources mainly in copper, gold, and silver, which are complemented by the availability of lithium.
Copper was exported until a few years ago, and currently, the primary metal sold abroad is gold.
Copper projects need to mature. The export structure consists of 83% metallic products and 15% lithium, another promise for generating foreign currency in the medium term. Lithium is sold mainly to China, which buys 70% of the production. Lithium has recently experienced a significant price drop.
Export mining production is destined for Switzerland, the United States, India, and China. From US$ 7 billion in mining sector exports in 2025, it could rise to US$ 15 billion by 2030. Gold and silver deposits are mature, and no major growth is expected: the key in the medium and long term is copper and lithium.
Argentina has metallic resources mainly in copper, gold, and silver, which are complemented by the availability of lithium.
RIGI
In these hydrocarbons and mining sectors, the contribution of the RIGI is fundamental. Most of the approved projects correspond to these two sectors. It is key for both to maintain high levels of investment, stable regulatory frameworks, and the development of infrastructure and logistics.
Regarding the direct employment of labor, the numbers are low in both sectors as they are capital-intensive industries. Indirect employment is important with a ratio of 5 to 1 in both mining and hydrocarbons.
To continue with the objective of a growing trade balance, the agricultural sector is expected to contribute additional dollars to the current ones. As is known, most of the dollars from this activity are concentrated in the second quarter. The contribution of mining and oil and gas provides greater stability to the settlement of foreign currency.
Complementarily, it is worth highlighting the services sector, where the central elements in the balance of payments are tourism and knowledge-based services. Both have growth potential and the ability to generate foreign currency. They are both in the order of US$ 7 billion and could double in foreign currency generated by both by 2030.
In short, there is a very positive scenario for the export deployment, but only with a five-year outlook. It is a relevant contribution to receiving good news in the current account of the balance of payments in the future.
The author is a professor of Economics at IAE Business School
Tags:
comercio exterior argentinaEduardo Fracchiaexportación hidrocarburosIAE Business Schoolminería ArgentinaRIGIvaca muerta
