Western Australia’s biggest export ports face a revenue and freight shake-up as the state’s resource economy moves away from fossil fuels and deeper into critical minerals and processed materials, according to BCEC’s WA’s Resources Sector in Transition report.
The report says fossil-fuel exports could fall from A$39bn ($27.0bn) today to about A$11bn ($7.6bn) by 2050 under an accelerated net-zero scenario, while transition minerals and processed materials could exceed A$100bn ($69.1bn) in annual value.
For Port Hedland, Dampier, Fremantle and the emerging Kwinana industrial precinct, the shift points to a long-term change in vessel mix, berth utilisation and landside logistics. Iron ore remains the backbone of the Pilbara freight task, but its share of total export value declines across all scenarios.
BCEC says growth in higher-value processed products, battery-grade materials and rare-earth concentrates will increase demand for container capacity, multi-user bulk berths, common-user storage and precinct-level energy infrastructure.
The report says WA’s future competitiveness will depend on “value, not volume”, with downstream processing and industrial capability becoming central to export growth. Iron ore currently delivers more than 80% of WA’s royalty revenue, leaving the state “highly exposed” to commodity cycles and Chinese demand.
Under all scenarios, crushed iron ore continues to generate large volumes, but its relative contribution to state revenue declines as the commodity mix changes.
BCEC says modest changes to royalty structures, including graduated rates for higher-value processed products, could generate billions in additional long-term revenue without discouraging downstream investment. It warns that “today’s prosperity does not guarantee tomorrow’s revenues”.
For LNG exporters using Dampier, Ashburton and the North West Shelf, the report highlights a widening gap between baseline and accelerated transition pathways.
LNG remains a major export through the 2030s, but long-term demand becomes less certain as global decarbonisation accelerates and competing jurisdictions expand supply.
That uncertainty raises questions over future throughput at LNG-focused terminals and the long-term contribution of LNG to state and Commonwealth revenues, including PRRT and company tax.
BCEC says major undeveloped projects such as Browse carry “multibillion-dollar implications” for future revenue streams.
The strongest growth outlook is in lithium, nickel, rare earths and battery-grade materials, with transition-mineral value projected to more than triple by 2050. For ports, that means more multi-commodity bulk movements, more containerised exports of processed materials, demand for renewable-energy-powered industrial precincts and greater focus on supply-chain certainty for global OEMs.
BCEC says WA is “exceptionally well placed” to become a trusted supplier of critical minerals and low-emissions industrial products if it invests in enabling infrastructure, skills, R&D and common-user processing hubs.
The report says WA’s next phase of prosperity will depend on how effectively the state “converts resource wealth into enduring economic capability”.
Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre is an independent economic and social research organisation located within Curtin Business School at Curtin University.
Pilbara Ports operates as a Western Australian Government Trading Enterprise and is governed under the Port Authorities Act 1999 WA.
