After the contraction recorded in 2023, largely due to international transport rate dynamics, the turnover of third-party logistics in Italy returned to growth in 2024 (+1.7% in nominal terms) and in 2025 (+1.9%), and is forecasted to reach a value of 112.4 billion euros. In “contract logistics” there are currently about 79,000 companies, with substantial stabilization after the contractions of previous years. Extraordinary operations continue, with 24 cases of M&A of Italian companies, aiming for positioning in strategic markets and the acquisition of specific skills. The vertical integration of logistics operators also continues: direct employees are growing and the supply chain is shortening, with the share of the cost of services (the item covering the purchase of warehouse and transport activities from other operators) falling from 71.9% to 68.9% of turnover. This is revealed by the results of the latest research from the “Gino Marchet” Contract Logistics Observatory of the Politecnico di Milano, just presented.
The contract logistics sector returned to growth in 2024 and 2025, with moderate rates, in a context of still slowing production and industrial activities. The pre-audit turnover for 2024 is estimated at 110.3 billion euros, +1.7% in nominal terms and +0.7% in real terms. For 2025, slight growth is forecast, +1.9% in nominal terms and +0.3% in real terms, reaching 112.4 billion euros. Analyzing the final data for 2023, the number of Italian third-party logistics companies stands at about 79,000 (-0.8%). Among the types of operators, a slight increase in warehouse managers is observed, while the decrease in road haulage companies continues, with 734 fewer. A decline in logistics operators is observed (-21 companies), a slight reduction in freight forwarders (-9) and growth in couriers (+15), while railway transport operators (+2) and managers of intermodal terminals (+2) increased slightly. Direct employees of logistics operators are growing. Analyzing a sample of 43 logistics operators classified as top players, direct employees increased from 30,700 in 2022 to 34,600 in 2023, with an increase in the average cost per employee from 46,234 euros in 2022 to 46,451 euros in 2023.
Regarding artificial intelligence in logistics, a survey of 7,187 client companies of logistics services in Italy shows that almost a third (30%) have already started at least one AI project in logistics processes. The logistics activities with greater use of AI are those involving white-collar workers in office activities (26%), compared to operational activities performed by blue-collar workers (16%). In particular, the highest adoption rates relate to order management (14%) and demand forecasting and material reordering (14%), highlighting how AI is seen primarily as support in predictive activities and document processing. In supplier management, AI is adopted by 10% of companies for planning and monitoring process activities.
For blue-collar workers, AI is used in warehouse tasks (12%), such as those performed by forklift drivers and pickers, in addition to transport tasks that directly involve drivers (7%).
The logistics sector’s efforts for the green transition are confirmed, albeit at a slower pace than in the past, due to increasing complexity, evolving regulations, and the difficulty of finding a balance between environmental and economic sustainability.
Finally, the analysis of 14,000 logistics service contracts shows an increase in indexed elements in 74% of transport contracts and 68% of warehouse contracts, and greater accuracy in indexing in 52% of transport contracts and 68% of warehouse contracts. Almost all transport contracts (96%) include indexing for fuel costs. Other relevant indexing elements concern Istat adjustments and the minimum wages provided for by the National Collective Labor Agreement (Ccnl). Whereas until a few years ago, it was almost exclusively the clients who provided for early termination clauses, today suppliers also request them in case of client defaults (57% of cases, compared to 63% for client company clauses). Protective instruments such as insurance policies (present in 46% of contracts) and supplier guarantees (41%) are growing. A slight reduction in the duration of warehouse contracts and “strategic outsourcing” contracts is observed (from 3.4 to 3 years and from 3.8 to 3.4 years respectively from 2017 to today) and a substantial stability in the duration of transport contracts (from 1.7 to 1.6 years).
SIGN UP FOR THE FREE SHIPPING ITALY DAILY NEWSLETTER
SHIPPING ITALY IS ALSO ON WHATSAPP: JUST CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHANNEL AND ALWAYS BE UPDATED
