Transits through the Strait of Hormuz continue, without any indications so far of a new blockade of the sea route, as earlier on Friday, Iranian media had reported that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) repeated warnings to commercial ships, linking the full normalization of navigation to the broader geopolitical equation in the Middle East and demanding specific measures.
In this context, the spokesperson of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Esmaeil Baghaei, categorically denied reports and accounts about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), arguing that the relevant claims “lack any basis.”
It should be noted, however, that the lifting of the naval blockade imposed on the movement of ships to and from Iranian ports was announced yesterday by the United States Central Command (CENTCOM).
Earlier, Iranian media reported that the IRGC Revolutionary Guards transmitted messages via the VHF Channel 16 maritime communication channel, arguing that this specific shipping route will remain closed until specific conditions are met.
These include, according to the content of the transmissions, the withdrawal of Israel from Lebanon and the withdrawal of American forces from the Persian Gulf.
Ships have been instructed to avoid approach for safety reasons. In fact, reports from the area mentioned warning shots from IRGC Revolutionary Guard vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, although this has not yet been confirmed.
At the same time, the Joint Maritime Information Center in the Strait of Hormuz area (JMIC) is requesting masters of commercial vessels transiting this specific maritime area to strictly adhere to safety measures, as increased traffic congestion, continuous VHF communications, intense naval presence, and possible route changes are expected.
Particular concern continues to be caused by the presence of mines in the area.
According to JMIC, the detection of a mine at specific coordinates has been confirmed, while demining operations continue.
Iranian authorities have announced that commercial vessels wishing to transit the Strait, via the maritime corridor designated by Iran, must submit an application to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority in order to obtain the relevant transit permit.
Traffic monitoring data shows that navigation is gradually being restored.
According to data from the maritime security company Diaplous, from June 1 to June 19, a total of 54 vessel movements were recorded, of which 28 involved tankers.
Activity increased significantly on June 18, the day the Iran-US agreement was signed, with 17 transits with the AIS system activated.
At the same time, it is estimated that at least ten more vessels crossed the Strait with their tracking system deactivated.
The picture remains restrained, as by 3:00 PM on Friday, only seven vessel transits with AIS activated had been recorded, of which four were outbound and three inbound.
The apparent restart of flows from the Persian Gulf creates a new, complex equation for freight markets.
On the one hand, the return of more cargoes could support demand for VLCCs and LNG carriers.
On the other hand, the risk premium, insurance surcharges, uncertainty over the duration of the agreement, and the potential reactivation of the idle fleet keep the market in a transitional phase.
For tankers, the first message is clear: the risk premium has not disappeared.
Large Asian buyers, such as PetroChina and Indian Oil Corp, faced extremely high freight demands for crude cargoes from the Persian Gulf.
In the case of PetroChina, offers for VLCCs that would load from Basrah in late June moved to levels multiple times pre-war prices, with corresponding daily earnings exceeding $400,000.
The company refused to pay at such levels, as the cost reached a point that, as emphasized, distorts the economic logic of the transaction.
At the same time, this picture shows that the market is pricing not only vessel availability but also uncertainty.
The question is no longer simply whether tonnage exists, but at what price a shipowner is willing to assume the commercial, insurance, and geopolitical risk.
Against the backdrop of these developments, ultra-large crude carrier freight rates reacted strongly, with market sources reporting that average TCE rates for VLCCs strengthened above $120,000 per day, from approximately $90,000 before the new phase of the crisis.
On certain routes, such as Persian Gulf-Asia, valuations moved to even higher levels, while the Gulf of Mexico-China and West Africa-China routes also strengthened, as the market reassesses demand for long-haul flows and the shift of available tonnage.
At the same time, according to analysts, the full return of flows from the Gulf could create a large wave of new loadings, supporting demand for VLCCs.
Based on this data, in a scenario of rapid restoration of exports, dozens or even hundreds of monthly loadings could be added globally, significantly increasing demand for large tankers.
On the other hand, however, part of the fleet that remained idle or out of the market could be reactivated, limiting the upward effect on freight rates.
At the same time, the swollen orderbook of VLCCs, which now approaches approximately one third of the existing fleet, poses a medium-term risk to the supply and demand balance.
In product tankers, the reopening of Hormuz does not imply an immediate de-escalation. Indicatively, Scorpio Tankers sees rates remaining above pre-war levels, due to disrupted supply chains, the need for inventory replenishment, and structural changes from refinery closures.
Thus, the new normal in freight markets will be determined not only by whether Hormuz remains open, but by how quickly trade flows, inventories, insurance confidence, and shipowners’ willingness to fully return to the region are restored.
Finally, in LNG carriers the picture is more restrained. Vessel movements to and from Ras Laffan show a gradual improvement in confidence, but the market does not yet consider that full normalization has occurred.
Spot rates are estimated to be able to remain near $100,000 per day in the short term, as shipowners and insurers await clearer indications that the ceasefire will hold.
If flows fully return within a period of two to three months, rates could decline towards $60,000-$70,000 per day, but winter demand from September may tighten the market again.
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