The first six months of 2025 held significant changes in the global geopolitical and economic landscape, leading international trade into an unprecedented period of heightened uncertainty. Tensions between Israel and Iran, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, as well as the U.S. tariff policy, composed a “cocktail” of complexity and uncertainty, which appears to be reshaping the prospects of global maritime trade.
Under this lens, a recent report by Veson Nautical focuses on the short-term outlook of the bulk carrier market, specifically on forecasts for the third quarter of the year.
According to Veson Nautical, the sluggishness of recent years in newbuild bulk carrier orders proves beneficial for the market’s supply-demand balance. The limited orderbook is expected to contribute to maintaining a low rate of capacity growth and, by extension, to fostering healthy market conditions.
However, challenges remain. Demand prospects in the bulk carrier market remain murky due to tariffs and disruptions in global trade. In particular, the slowdown in Chinese growth, especially in the real estate sector, is expected to dampen demand for dry bulk cargoes in 2025, unsettling the market equilibrium.
Long-term, of course, the realignments on the global trade map are expected to boost ton-mile demand.
Finally, the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea and the forced rerouting of vessels around Africa are estimated to increase bulk carrier ton-miles by 1% and support freight rates.
