The dry bulk freight market has entered a phase of strong, volume-based recovery, definitively leaving behind the sharp correction of 2025. As recorded in a recent report by the shipbroker Xclusiv, the data from the first four months of 2026 confirm a clear upward trend in the maritime transport of cargo.
Specifically, the total volume of seaborne cargo transported in the period January-April 2026 amounted to 506.7 million tons. This performance constitutes an increase of 9.6% compared to the same period last year (462.5 million tons) and a jump of 15.2% compared to the first four months of 2024.
At the same time, the monthly analysis highlights the momentum and duration of this growth, with January recording an annual increase of 15.6% (126.8 million tons) and February 12.4% (118.7 million tons). In conclusion, the market maintained its pace, with March (131 million tons) and April (130.1 million tons) moving at historically high levels.
This specific “explosion” of cargoes was immediately reflected in freight rate levels, with Capesize vessels leading the way. The C5TC index averaged $/day in the first four months, recording an impressive increase of 82% compared to the 2025 average and 7.3% compared to 2024. Notable was the performance in April, when daily rates soared to $31,417, which corresponds to an annual increase of 96%.
A similar picture was recorded by Panamax vessels, with the P5TC index at $/day, approaching 2024 levels. The sign was also positive for the smaller sizes, with Ultramax (S11TC) and Handysize (HS7TC) strengthening by 42% (at $/day) and 34% (at $/day) respectively, confirming that the 2025 downturn was strictly cyclical in nature.
With the freight market now emphatically confirming its recovery, it becomes clear that demand was quietly strengthening throughout the previous period, despite the fact that extreme rate volatility was hiding the true picture. The convergence of the rapid increase in cargoes with the rally in freight rates is not coincidental. It indicates a market that is leaving behind the psychology of oversupply and reacting to the real tightness prevailing between available capacity and increased cargoes. Now, the central question is not whether the recovery is real, but whether the current pace of growth can be sustained. Key regulators of the next day will be the delivery rate of newly built vessels, as well as the highly fluid geopolitical environment, which continues to generate both risks and opportunities simultaneously.
Source: Xclusiv
