Argentine exports are showing a significant acceleration in the third quarter of the year. After a moderate growth of 7.5% in July, external sales jumped to 16.4% in August and consolidated at 16.9% during September, according to data from INDEC analyzed by the Centro de Investigación en Negocios y Exportación (CIEN), headed by Gustavo Scarpetta.
If this performance is sustained, 2025 will close with the second-best exports of the last 20 years, positioning itself among the highest in Argentine history.
Primary products lead the recovery
The September momentum was concentrated in primary products, which grew 43% year-on-year. Fuels and energy also showed dynamism, with a 25% increase, driven by higher volumes from Vaca Muerta and refined products. Manufacturas de Origen Agropecuario (MOA), one of the country’s traditional categories, grew 11.2%.
This recovery reflects the combined impact of a more competitive exchange rate, better relative prices, and stronger international demand in specific sectors.
Geographic diversification: lights and shadows
In the cumulative to September, exports grew 7.5% compared to 2024. But the performance by destination shows contrasting realities.
China and India stand out with growth of 29.3% and 57.8% respectively. The Indian market became the star of the year, driven by higher demand for flours, oils, and food. The United States also surprises positively with a 23.1% increase, despite the trade war, sustained by energy and MOA.
Brazil, on the other hand, fell 4.9%. This is a relevant warning sign given its weight in Manufacturas de Origen Industrial (MOI), particularly affecting the Argentine automotive and metalworking industries.
Africa: the phenomenon of the year
The African continent is emerging as a strategic vector. Exports to Africa went from 2166 million to 2898 million dollars in the first nine months, representing an expansion of 34%.
Nigeria leads with a spectacular growth of 182% in its purchases from Argentina. They are followed by Kenya (+72%) and Morocco (+57%). These are markets where the exported volume is already significant and the continent is positioning itself as a key destination for MOA, hydrocarbons, and products from the agro-export chain.
The challenge: sustaining the acceleration
The trend is encouraging, but consolidating it towards 2026 requires active policies. CIEN identifies four critical axes:
The main risk remains Brazil. Its decline affects the exports with the highest added value, precisely the segment where Argentina needs to grow to diversify its export matrix beyond commodities.
What’s next
Argentina is recovering export competitiveness with a marked change of pace since August. Agriculture and energy lead, geographic diversification advances, and markets like India and several African countries are consolidating as concrete opportunities.
Sustaining this dynamic will require a coordinated export agenda between the public and private sectors. The September numbers are good. The issue is whether they represent a turning point or just a seasonal peak.
