Carbon emissions rising instead of falling? Why is EU shipping industry decarbonization “moving in the opposite direction”?

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According to the latest statistics from the European Federation for Transport and Environment (T&E), despite trade volumes remaining largely flat year-on-year, EU shipping emissions surged by 13% in 2024, hitting a historic peak since official monitoring began in 2018.

Source: European Federation for Transport and Environment, compiled by the Economic Research Center

Chart: Trade and Carbon Emissions at European Economic Area Ports

This data originates from the EU MRV system (Monitoring, Reporting and Verification system, designed to systematically monitor, report, and verify CO2 emissions generated by merchant ships entering or leaving European territorial waters). The statistical scope covers ships calling at European ports with a gross tonnage of 5,000 tonnes and above. The data shows that in the ranking of polluting companies, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) is the largest polluter in the EU shipping sector, with CO2 emissions reaching 15.6 million tonnes. The Grimaldi Group is the largest emitter in the non-container shipping sector, with emissions of 3.8 million tonnes, while Carnival is the highest-emitting company in the cruise industry, with emissions of 2.5 million tonnes.

Source: European Federation for Transport and Environment, compiled by the Economic Research Center

Chart 2: Emissions from Major Shipping Companies under the EU MRV System

Route changes due to geopolitics and the energy crisis are likely the main drivers behind the emission increase. On one hand, the Red Sea crisis has caused numerous container ships to detour via the Cape of Good Hope, increasing voyage distances by 18%. Simultaneously, ships have increased speed by 3% to meet schedules, directly increasing per-unit emissions, leading to a 46% year-on-year surge in container ship emissions. On the other hand, the European energy crisis resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict has further boosted fossil fuel transport volumes. Fossil fuel transport accounts for 20% of EU shipping emissions, and carbon emissions from crude oil transport have rebounded to the 2019 peak level.

To promote zero-carbon development in the shipping industry, the EU is taking a two-pronged approach in funding and /regulation, launching the Sustainable Transport Investment Plan (STIP), which plans to invest 2.9 billion euros to support clean energy development in the maritime and aviation sectors. The compliance rate for its nearly two-year-old Shipping Emissions Trading System (ETS) has also reached 99%. With the delay in the implementation of the IMO’s zero-carbon framework, the EU, as a main driver of green shipping, may use this gap to refine and expand the coverage of its shipping ETS, further solidifying its influence in the sector. (Author: Zhang Yu)