Danish maritime consultancy Sea-Intelligence released a striking chart this week tracking the “containment speed” of every shipping disruption in the container transport market since 2012—how long the market took to return to pre-shock levels after each event. The chart shows: after the 2014 US West Coast labor dispute, the market recovered in three months; after Hanjin Shipping’s bankruptcy in 2016, the market recovered in one month; during the pandemic, recovery periods ranged from 15 to 26 months; after the Red Sea crisis, the market recovered in two months. The currently unresolved Strait of Hormuz crisis is marked with a question mark.
/Sea-Intelligence
The most intuitive interpretation is that the container transport market is becoming more resilient to shocks. However, Sea-Intelligence shipping analyst Imaad Asad also stated that the reality is far more complex. “Disruptions haven’t disappeared; the shipping network is simply better at absorbing them now. Liner companies have fundamentally changed their operational strategies, proactively adding ‘buffer time’ into schedules. During the pandemic, due to a lack of transshipment buffers, any disruption quickly escalated into a full-chain collapse. Now, by structurally extending transit times in advance, liners absorb shocks before they spread.” In other words, the industry is trading speed for stability.
Simon Heaney, container transport market analyst at Drewry, pointed to a more structural explanation: “As usual, it’s a combination of multiple factors. The scale of these crises is vastly different. For the container transport market, the operational disruption from the Strait of Hormuz crisis is far smaller than the diversion impact during the Red Sea crisis, which in turn appears relatively minor compared to the shock of the pandemic.” Simon Heaney added that overcapacity is central to the industry’s enhanced shock resistance. “The industry has learned to adapt to a state of ‘permanent crisis,’ and flexibly deploying surplus vessels like chess pieces on a board greatly helps. Therefore, the marginal impact of disruptions on liner companies is diminishing. For them, the real ‘golden ticket’ is when an event simultaneously triggers a surge in demand and a tightening of logistics capacity.”
Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, also believes scale is the most important factor. The pandemic caused unprecedented congestion at major global ports, explaining the record recovery times. The Red Sea crisis directly affected a relatively smaller share of total container volume, and the Cape of Good Hope route provided a viable alternative, allowing recovery even as diversions continued. On an operational level, the volume affected by the Strait of Hormuz crisis accounts for only 2% to 3% of global total container volume.
However, not everyone interprets the chart the same way. Peter Tirschwell, founder of TPM, firmly believes that the most relevant point is not that post-shock market recovery may be faster, but that delays are actually worsening over time. He cited the World Bank’s recently released Container Port Performance Index, which tracks port handling efficiency—efficiency that has never recovered post-pandemic. “Carriers talk about the chronic worsening of port delays as a reality the industry will have to face in the coming years.”
Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, believes the frequency and nature of disruptions have themselves changed. “Since the pandemic began, disruptions have become more frequent—and more severe in impact compared to pre-pandemic times. Crises are always different. If you can’t differentiate between them and their effects, you’ll be reactive.” His core point is that freight rate volatility has now become a structural feature, no longer just a risk to be managed, but a permanent fixture of the operating environment.
The World Bank’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index perhaps best illustrates the gap between system “resilience” and “true health.” Even if the scenario depicted by Sea-Intelligence shows shocks being absorbed faster, the volume of containers affected by delays is currently at its highest level since the pandemic peak—over 2 million TEUs under pressure. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has rebounded above $2,/TEU. In other words, the market recovering faster from individual events does not equate to the supply chain functioning normally.
