Global container shipping continues to face freight rate volatility and operational challenges. Blank sailings on major east-west routes fell by only 1% month-on-month in June, but a significant 54% decline is expected in July, primarily affecting the trans-Pacific routes.
Among the 719 scheduled voyages across the trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic, and Asia-North Europe/Mediterranean routes, 49 sailings (7%) are expected to be canceled between Week 28 (July 7–13) and Week 32 (August 4–10). Most blank sailings in the next five weeks are projected for the eastbound trans-Pacific route (57%), followed by Asia-North Europe/Mediterranean (29%) and the westbound trans-Atlantic (14%). Meanwhile, schedule reliability is improving, with 93% of weekly departures expected to proceed as planned (see chart below).
**Source:** Drewry Maritime Supplychain Advisor
The global trade environment remains uncertain as the July 9 expiration of the U.S. suspension of reciprocal tariffs approaches. Tariff decisions in the coming weeks could significantly impact trade flows in the third quarter.
In the ocean freight market, signs indicate a softening peak season—particularly on the trans-Pacific routes. Spot rates are declining as capacity growth outpaces demand. The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) fell for the third consecutive week, dropping 6% to $2,812, with trans-Pacific rates down 13% week-on-week. Asia-Europe/Mediterranean rates dipped slightly by 1%, while trans-Atlantic rates rose by 7%.
The earlier surge in demand, driven by tariff suspensions, prompted carriers to increase capacity, especially on the Asia-US West Coast (Asia-USWC) route. However, this momentum appears to be cooling, with current spot rates significantly below June’s peak.
On Asia-Europe and Mediterranean routes, rates remain elevated—up 42% since May. However, Mediterranean rates are stabilizing, suggesting resistance to further General Rate Increases (GRIs) unless carriers implement unconventional mid-peak season capacity adjustments.
Looking ahead, we maintain a cautious outlook. If weak demand persists through the end of Q3, carriers may increasingly focus on capacity management to sustain rate levels. Meanwhile, shippers should remain flexible, as tariff developments, geopolitical risks, and volatile market dynamics will continue to influence trade flows.
