Rotterdam, 25 November (Argus) — European buyers are avoiding diesel from Nigeria’s 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery because the product fails to meet winter specifications and has sulphur levels above tolerance, according to market sources.
Dangote “can’t supply winter diesel, at present, to the colder regions [of Europe],” a Nigerian source with knowledge of the matter told Argus. The issue is not arbitrage economics, the source said, unlike in May when European bids were too low for Dangote to sell cargoes.
The source did not explain why so little diesel from Dangote is reaching Europe despite the region’s structural reliance on imports to cover shortfalls in domestic output. But European traders say the reason is clear — Dangote diesel on offer is off-spec by premium German winter standards.
“This is not 10ppm [diesel] at all,” one European distillates trader said of a Dangote diesel sample dated 16 November, adding that the product had a cloud point of +8°C compared with the German winter requirement of -7°C. The sample showed 36ppm sulphur, while its specific gravity was within Dangote’s stated export range at 0.8395. Its cetane number was elevated at 57.5 against a minimum requirement of 51.
Dangote was not immediately available for comment.
Even the prospect of blending Dangote diesel with jet fuel to improve winter properties “sounds like a long shot”, the trader said. “Jet is not 10ppm so there’s a limit on how much of it you can add.” Blending jet into diesel can lower the cloud point because of jet’s lower density, but it raises sulphur content.
Another distillates trader said they had not considered buying Dangote diesel as blendstock to upgrade to European specification because “it’s difficult to get low-sulphur jet to cut with”. The trader added that if the cold filter plugging point (CFPP) were the only issue, Dangote would likely already be exporting, since this can be corrected with additives.
No CFPP reading was provided for the sample, and Dangote’s export specifications do not include CFPP. CFPP measures the lowest temperature at which fuel can still pass through filters, while cloud point is the temperature at which wax crystals start forming in diesel.
With European demand muted, west Africa has taken nearly all seaborne diesel and gasoil loadings from the refinery this year. Nigeria itself has received 25,000 b/d, followed by Ghana at 14,000 b/d and Togo at 7,000 b/d, according to Kpler data. West Africa accounts for 58,000 b/d, or 97pc of Dangote’s total loadings, while Gran Canaria received one 38,400 bl gasoil cargo from the refinery — the only European import so far this year.
Even domestic Nigerian buyers are cautious. Industrial and commercial buyers, who account for most local demand, prefer diesel with specific gravity from 0.8400 up because they say it burns slower, an oil trader told Argus. Dangote diesel usually comes in at 0.8300 or lower and sometimes requires extra marketing effort to close sales, the trader said.
Dangote specification documents seen by Argus show the refiner targets a 0.8200–0.8700 gravity range for domestic diesel and 0.8300–0.8600 for export grade. The sample seen by Argus was at 0.8386.
Dangote said last month that it plans to expand the refinery’s capacity to 1.4mn b/d by 2028, by which time it will start winter-grade diesel production and raise fuel quality to the Euro VI standard.
By George Maher-Bonnett and Adebiyi Olusolape
