Global fertilizer shipments have fallen 11% year-over-year since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, largely due to disruptions in exports from the Persian Gulf following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Shipments of phosphates, urea, and sulphur have been particularly affected, contributing to tighter supply and higher fertilizer prices. The disruption has had the greatest impact on the supramax and handysize dry bulk sectors, which rely heavily on fertilizer cargoes. Following the recent U.S.–Iran ceasefire agreement and plans to restore safe passage through the strait, fertilizer exports are expected to rebound as delayed cargoes move to market. While production in the region is expected to recover, some facilities in Qatar and the UAE may continue operating below full capacity due to war-related damage.
