The ICS Maritime Barometer 2025-2026, based on responses from 185 maritime executives, found that political instability ranked as the industry’s top risk for the fourth consecutive year, ahead of cyberattacks, regional regulations, administrative burdens, and barriers to trade.
The report describes geopolitical instability not as a standalone concern, but as a “risk multiplier” that amplifies other threats facing shipping, including regulatory fragmentation, cyber vulnerabilities, compliance burdens, and disruptions to global trade flows.
“The findings are unequivocal,” ICS Chairman John Denholm wrote in the report’s foreword. “Geopolitical instability has become a defining risk multiplier, influencing everything from market conditions to operational planning.”
The survey was conducted before the outbreak of the major Middle East conflict in early 2026, meaning many respondents had not yet factored the latest disruptions into their assessments. The report notes that all but eight of the 185 responses were submitted before the conflict began.
According to ICS, shipping executives increasingly view today’s operating environment as one defined by interconnected risks. Trade restrictions are reshaping cargo flows, regulatory divergence is increasing complexity, and cyber threats are becoming more severe as political tensions rise. The report refers to this trend as “risk stacking,” arguing that traditional approaches to risk management are becoming less effective.
Cybersecurity ranked as the second-highest risk overall. While respondents reported significant investment in cyber defenses, confidence in the industry’s ability to manage the threat remains relatively low. ICS noted that increasing digitalization, artificial intelligence tools, smart ship technologies, and connected logistics systems are expanding the industry’s attack surface.
Regional and unilateral regulations were identified as the third-largest risk. Respondents expressed growing concern that geopolitical competition is driving regulatory fragmentation, forcing shipping companies to navigate a widening patchwork of emissions rules, trade restrictions, and compliance requirements across jurisdictions.
The report also highlighted increasing administrative burdens, which ranked fourth among industry risks. Sanctions compliance, trade restrictions, emissions reporting requirements, and evolving crew certification standards are all adding complexity and cost for operators.
Beyond risk perception, the survey found that maritime leaders continue to take a pragmatic approach to decarbonization amid economic and regulatory uncertainty.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and biofuels were jointly ranked as the most viable fuel options for the coming decade, followed closely by heavy fuel oil combined with emissions-abatement technologies. The findings suggest operators are favoring fuel pathways with established supply chains, proven technologies, and existing infrastructure rather than betting heavily on less mature alternatives.
Regulation was identified as the single most influential factor affecting business operations, while public funding and market-based measures such as carbon pricing were also viewed as critical drivers of the industry’s energy transition. However, respondents reported low confidence in the availability and consistency of public funding programs.
The survey also examined the impact of delays to the International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework negotiations.
While nearly 58% of respondents reported no changes to their decarbonization plans, others indicated they had paused, modified, or canceled projects while awaiting greater regulatory clarity.
Overall, ICS concluded that shipping companies are increasingly prioritizing resilience and operational continuity over aggressive transformation strategies as they navigate a more fragmented and volatile global environment.
“Steady progress is increasingly defined by the need to manage uncertainty, align competing pressures, and ensure that the transition remains both operationally feasible and commercially viable,” the report said.
