The UP World LNG Shipping Index gained 0.37 points (0.17%) last week, closing at 217.82 points, while the S&P 500 gained 2.33% — its sixth consecutive weekly gain. The headline UPI number is again misleading: the median change was -1.04%, gainers outnumbered decliners just 5:14, and the weighted index fell 1.67%. The index remains in a support zone defined by the March peak and the low of the subsequent correction, where it has been hovering for three weeks — a sign of resilience rather than weakness. The first growth phase of 2026 is over; the UPI is in a wait-and-see zone, with geopolitics as the dominant driver.
The key development of the week was the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz: Bloomberg reported that ADNOC tankers turned off their tracking systems and successfully passed through, and on Sunday, reports emerged that Qatari tankers had also made the passage and were heading to deliver LNG to customers. If sustained, the remaining structural problem is the damage to Qatari terminals, whose repair will take years, but the remaining capacity would help ease supply tensions. Spot tanker rates stood at $96,/day for the Atlantic and $67,/day for the Pacific, according to Spark Commodities. Awilco LNG led the decliners with a 11.5% decline, following a CEO change announced on Friday linked to its pivot into gas trading. BP, Shell, and Chevron each fell 4–7% on geopolitical developments. On the positive side, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, Tsakos Energy Navigation (+3.3%), and Nakilat (+3.04%) led the gainers.
UPI & SPX
The UP World LNG Shipping Index, which tracks 20 listed LNG shipping companies, gained 0.37 points (0.17%), closing at 217.82 points, while the S&P 500 index gained 2.33%. The chart below illustrates the performance of both indices with weekly data.
Broader View
At first glance, the UPI showed a positive shift, but upon closer inspection, this is more of a further challenge to the prospect of growth. This is confirmed by the median change of -1.04%, the ratio of rising to falling companies (5:14), and the 1.67% decline in the weighted UPI (wUPI). The UPI chart itself offers another perspective: With its decline, the UPI has entered a support zone defined by the March peak and the low of the subsequent correction, where it has been hovering for the third week in a row. This indicates a certain degree of strength, as the decline has not continued and the index is moving sideways. The conclusion, therefore, is that the first growth phase of this year is over and the UPI is in a wait-and-see zone. Geopolitics now has the most significant impact on the UPI, with quarterly results coming in second. We anticipate that, paradoxically, the damage caused by the war will have a positive impact on UPI companies during the second quarter, which is statistically the weakest.
During the week, Bloomberg reported that ADNOC tankers had turned off their tracking systems and attempted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a move they succeeded in. On Sunday, reports emerged that Qatari tankers had also passed through the Strait of Hormuz and were heading to deliver LNG to their customers. This is good news in itself, because if this continues, the “only” significant problem remaining is the damage to Qatari terminals, which will take years to repair. However, the remaining capacity would still help ease tensions surrounding a potential natural gas shortage.
And more importantly, this is still only slipping through the Hormuz Strait.
Friday’s Reuters summary mentions a decline in spot gas prices for Asia. European demand is driven by contractual deliveries, not yet by winter stockpiling. Global LNG flows continue to head mainly to Asia, where demand is expected to grow due to warmer weather and consequently higher electricity consumption.
Spot tanker rates are at $96,500 for the Atlantic and $67,000 for the Pacific, according to Spark Commodities.
Constituents
Awilco LNG (OSE: ALNG) saw the biggest decline, with its share price falling 11.5% and returning to a sideways trading range. On Friday, the company announced a change in CEO, supported by its major shareholders. The change is related to the previously announced expansion of the company’s operations into the gas trading business.
Shares of natural gas and oil producers also fell in response to geopolitical developments. BP (NYSE: BP) dropped 6.61%, Shell (NYSE: SHEL) lost 5.63%, and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) fell 4.73%. The increased volatility of these companies is also reflected in the fact that they are still trading near this year’s highs but have lost their upward momentum, moving sideways or falling toward support levels. But as Napoleon said, “The situation on the front changes every moment.” In this case, however, it is more accurate to quote these words from the novel The Good Soldier Švejk, as they offer a perspective different from that of the famous strategist.
New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ: NFE) fell by 4.48%, which is also somewhat paradoxical, as it was warned by its parent exchange of the threat of delisting precisely because of its low share price.
Other declines were not particularly dramatic: Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (TSE: 9104) lost 2.4%, Korea Line Corporation (KRX: 005880) fell by 1.93%, and Dynagas LNG (NYSE: DLNG) dropped 1.79%.
MOL is in a similar situation to the aforementioned oil-and-gas trio. Despite the decline, it still retains a large portion of this year’s gains. The same applies to Korea Line Corporation, which is also holding above its support level (previously resistance). Over the past week, it tested movements in both directions before more or less returning to its starting point. Dynagas, on the other hand, has returned to last year’s peak price levels. This is also the range in which the price traded in 2024. However, the company announced a Q1 dividend of $0.05 again.
Excelerate Energy (NYSE: EE) lost 1.68% but remained in a sideways range. During its first-quarter earnings call, the company announced a delay in the start of its Iraqi contract due to the U.S.-Iran conflict and quantified the monthly loss from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz at $1 million. The Iraqi FSRU is expected to launch six months after work resumes, but no sooner than next year. However, the company successfully secured a nine-month contract for the spare FSRU in Jordan.
MISC (KLSE: 3816) attempted to rise during the week, but the overall result was a 1.19% decline. However, it is still trading at the upper end of its sideways range, so further attempts at growth cannot be ruled out.
Capital Clean Energy Carriers (NASDAQ: CCEC) also announced a dividend during its quarterly earnings report. Here, too, it is the same amount as in previous quarters: $0.15. An important announcement was the earlier delivery of three new LNG tankers. The new delivery dates are in June and July of this year.
Its share price ended the week down 1.04%.
NYK Line (TSE: 9101) lost just one-hundredth less in a week-over-week comparison. Its share price is hovering near support, and its weekly candle is green because the closing price was higher than the opening price. However, this wasn’t enough for a positive week-over-week move, despite the effort.
Golar LNG (NASDAQ: GLNG) also contributed to the week’s positive tone with a flat performance.
However, the majority of the gains were still attributable to rising stocks. As we mentioned at the beginning, there weren’t many of them. COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (SS: 600026) posted the biggest gain, followed by Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TEN, +3.3%) and, most notably, Nakilat (QSE: QGTS, +3.04%). The last stock to rise was ADNOC Logistics & Services (ADX: ADNOCLS).
COSCO bounced off support and is trading sideways near this year’s highs. TEN continues its historic rally, and Nakilat is trading sideways near pre-war price levels with some relief. Conversely, ADNOC has risen to the upper end of the price range seen in mid-last year.
Crystal Ball
The second quarter is typically the weakest seasonally, but this year will be different—geopolitical circumstances have knocked nearly 20% of global LNG production offline. While Europe still enjoys a certain advantage over Asia, it now needs gas, and rising prices are hitting the poorest consumers, such as those in Bangladesh, the hardest.
The shortfall in supplies will have to be replaced. We view the return to coal as temporary; we expect a gradual increase in spot supplies and greater geographic diversification of sources, which will bring longer shipping routes and higher demand for tankers. Carriers operating on the US–Europe or Australia–Asia routes are in a more stable position.
The outlook remains volatile, but positive in the long term. Companies with spot tankers are benefiting from high rates and longer distances. The gradual phasing out of steamers and the addition of new liquefaction capacity will continue to drive the sector forward.
Source: By Tomas Novotny,
