Maersk has revised its financial forecasts for 2026 upward. The increase is significant, driven by the strong rise in freight rates.
The previous estimates, released only on May 7, forecast an EBITDA between $4.5 and $7.0 billion and an EBIT between -$1.5 and +$1.0 billion.
The new guidance now forecasts an EBITDA of $8-10 billion and an EBIT of $2-4 billion.
Maersk estimates a 4% growth in container market volumes, compared to the previous forecast of 2-4%.
“Based on the sensitivity indicators provided by Maersk in the first quarter results, a change of +/- 100,000 FEU alters EBIT by +/- $0.01 billion, while a change of +/- $/FEU on the freight rate impacts EBIT by +/- $1.0 billion,” explains the CEO of Vespucci Maritime, Lars Jensen.
“This implies that current rates are settling at about $300-350 per FEU more than was expected less than two months ago,” he adds, noting that this figure represents the average for the full year.
Considering that in the first quarter estimates the rates for that period were already known, this increase must be concentrated exclusively in the second through fourth quarters. To achieve such growth, the underlying expectation therefore implies an average rate increase of $/FEU for the Q2-Q4 period.
