A.P. Moller-Maersk has sharply upgraded its 2026 profit forecast, moving from a guidance range that still allowed for a USD 1.5 billion operating loss to one that now points to as much as USD 4 billion in underlying EBIT.
The Danish group said continued strong demand in the container market, particularly from the Far East, and a sustained rise in spot freight rates had prompted it to lift its full-year outlook.
Maersk now expects underlying EBITDA of USD 8 billion to USD 10 billion, compared with its previous range of USD 4.5 billion to USD 7 billion. More strikingly, its underlying EBIT forecast has been raised to USD 2 billion to USD 4 billion, replacing earlier guidance of between a USD 1.5 billion loss and a USD 1 billion profit.
The company also improved its free cash flow guidance, which is now expected to be at least minus USD 1.5 billion, rather than at least minus USD 3 billion. Maersk has also lifted its view of global container market growth to around 4% for 2026, from a previous range of 2% to 4%.
The full second-quarter results are due to be published on 13 August, but the guidance update already marks a dramatic shift in sentiment for the world’s second-largest container line.
Only a few months ago, 2026 was still being framed as a difficult year for liner shipping. New vessel deliveries, volatile freight rates and geopolitical disruption had raised fears of overcapacity and pressure on margins. Maersk’s previous guidance reflected that uncertainty, with the possibility of a sizeable operating loss still built into the outlook.
That picture has now changed. Spot rates have climbed sharply in recent weeks, helped by strong demand on export routes out of Asia, disruption-related costs, and frontloading by shippers seeking to move goods before further tariff or cost changes take effect.
Drewry’s World Container Index reached USD 4,166 per 40ft container on 25 June, up 5% in a week and its highest level since September 2024. The increase was driven mainly by the Transpacific trade, where rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles and Shanghai to New York rose strongly.
The rate recovery has also been visible on Asia-Europe routes. Drewry’s latest assessment put Shanghai-Rotterdam at USD 4,392 per 40ft container and Shanghai-Genoa at USD 5,759, with carriers continuing to push through peak-season and bunker-related increases.
For Maersk, the upgrade suggests that the recent rally is no longer being treated as a short-lived spot-market spike. Instead, the company now expects the combination of demand growth and higher rates to have a material impact on full-year earnings.
The wider significance is that Maersk’s announcement may be the clearest signal so far that container shipping is avoiding the downturn many had expected in 2026. After the pandemic boom and the Red Sea-driven profits of recent years, analysts had warned that the industry could face a painful correction as more new ships entered service.
Instead, disruption and demand have again absorbed part of that capacity. The Middle East conflict, uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, continued route instability, tariff-related frontloading and higher operating costs have all contributed to a tighter effective market than headline fleet growth alone would suggest.
However, the upgrade does not mean the whole sector is out of danger.
Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk’s partner in the Gemini Cooperation, has not yet followed with a similar revision. In May, the German carrier maintained its 2026 guidance of USD 1.1 billion to USD 3.1 billion in EBITDA and an EBIT range between a USD 1.5 billion loss and a USD 0.5 billion profit. It warned that the outlook remained subject to considerable uncertainty because of volatile freight rates and the conflict in the Middle East.
