/Agencia Reuters
U.S. retailers have brought forward their orders to China by four to six weeks to secure inventories for Black Friday sales and the Christmas holidays ahead of expected tariff increases later this year, according to shipping industry executives.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to China last month has maintained détente between the world’s two largest powers, but uncertainty remains high.
A 10% U.S. universal tariff imposed by Washington in February, after the Supreme Court ruled some previous tariffs illegal, expires on July 24, but is widely expected to be replaced by higher levies.
The U.S. Trade Representative has proposed a 12.5% tariff on imports from China and elsewhere following an investigation into forced labor, something Beijing denies. A final decision is expected in the coming months.
“There is an expectation that tariffs could go up again, or be reinstated to previous levels, so everyone is rushing to get goods in before that happens,” said Tony Meng, senior sales manager based in China for shipping company XPD Global.
Normally, this type of ordering peaks between July and September, but shipping companies noted that volumes in May and June were higher than expected, contributing to a rebound in shipping prices.
This pull-forward of orders means that the 35% growth in U.S. imports from China in May — which eclipsed April’s 11% growth and March’s contraction — could hold in June, but risks fading later in the summer.
Exports have been a key growth driver for China this year, offsetting structural weakness in domestic demand and continuing a strong 2025, the year the world’s second-largest economy posted a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion.
Among the top U.S. import items from China by value in May were smartphones, lithium-ion batteries, solid-state drives (SSDs), toys, kitchenware, and festive products. June data will be released on July 14.
Shipping group Maersk said in a statement to Reuters that container space has been tightening on the China-U.S. route since mid-May, due to “higher customer demand and more forward seasonal bookings.”
A shipping executive based in China, who requested anonymity as he was not authorized to speak to the media, said back-to-school items — such as stationery and clothing — were part of the May and June order pull-forward, while early stocking for Christmas also played a role.
The source added that the May uptick was also driven by orders related to the FIFA World Cup, including jerseys, flags, souvenirs, and large-screen televisions.
Estados Unidos coorganiza el torneo junto con Canadá y México.
El Índice Mundial de Contenedores de la consultora Drewry mostró que las tarifas de flete al contado (spot) desde Shanghái a Nueva York -el 25 de junio- eran de 7.149 dólares por contenedor de 40 pies, un 6% más alta que la semana anterior y un 25% más que el año pasado. En la ruta de Shanghái a Los Ángeles, el costo fue de 5.750 dólares, un 12% más en la semana y un 54% más alto en el año.
“Los importadores continúan adelantando sus cargamentos antes de posibles cambios arancelarios y de costos más elevados vinculados al combustible para barcos (bunker)”, señaló un informe de Drewry.
El fabricante de muebles para exteriores Jin Chaofeng señaló que sería difícil trasladar la totalidad de los costos de envío a los clientes, apuntando al débil poder de fijación de precios y a los estrechos márgenes de ganancia que tienen los fabricantes chinos en los sectores menos avanzados tecnológicamente.
Sin embargo, Kyle Henderson, director general y cofundador del proveedor de software de seguimiento de contenedores Vizion, advirtió que los aranceles siguen pesando sobre la demanda general de EE.UU., la cual se mantiene por debajo de su promedio de tres años y solo debería describirse como entre “normal y débil”.
Los mayores costos de transporte marítimo reflejan más una gestión de capacidad por parte de las empresas de transporte que un aumento drástico en la demanda estadounidense, señaló Henderson, citando algunas cancelaciones de salidas de barcos en las últimas semanas.
Henderson prevé que los volúmenes caigan después de julio y durante el tercer trimestre debido a una “combinación de inventario que ya ha desembarcado y un entorno arancelario que eleva estructuralmente el costo de las mercancías originarias de China”, concluyó.
