Global, and local, events are beginning to cause concern. When the American president said that in a couple of weeks he would decide whether to attack Iran in support of Israel, and the other day he launches Tomahawk and ballistic missiles, something doesn’t add up. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a problem.
Given that 20% of the world’s oil production passes through there, which means our wallets are likely to suffer, filling up the car’s tank will cost us more with all that it entails. Bunker fuel prices are rising, but perhaps maritime freight rates will have to absorb the cost increases, given that, with little cargo moving, the market is not in a position for too many price hikes. Furthermore, all global shipping companies did well in the 1st quarter before Trump’s Liberation Day, and now operators with free tanks are doing better, but the flow seems to be turning in an unpredictable way.
We are playing with fire, and it is easy to get burned without wanting or desiring it, but with the politicians we have in command, everything is going from bad to worse. The poker game being proposed on a global level is very risky and dangerous. Poking the Persians could be a bluff or end fatally, but it is clear that if the situation worsens, everything will inevitably get worse. Since we continue to live in the oil-based energy model, costs must escalate in this scenario if the conflict does not cease positively, which it does not seem to.
Global recession, wars, political crises everywhere and exaggerated climate change, what more could you ask for? Try to enjoy every moment and be happy day by day, given that the great theater of life could collapse shortly with so much hustle and bustle. This pen filled the tank to the brim, just in case.
The Strait of Hormuz is 40 kilometers at its narrowest point, and through it the black gold of Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia is exported, countries that live like rich people in their deserts. A lot at stake. According to ChatGPT, the main moments of tension in the region are the following:
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988): Both countries attacked enemy oil tankers in what became known as the “Tanker War.” The United States intervened by escorting Kuwaiti ships.
1988 – Operation Praying Mantis: The U.S. Navy attacked Iranian ships and platforms after a U.S. frigate was sunk by an Iranian mine.
2000s onwards – Iranian nuclear program and sanctions: Tensions increased with Western sanctions on Iran, which in response threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz as economic retaliation.
2019 – Tanker incidents: Several tankers were attacked or seized. The United States blamed Iran, which denied it. The United Kingdom and Iran seized each other’s vessels.
Constant military presence: The United States maintains a strong naval presence in the area to protect free navigation, which generates friction with Iran.
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea (2023-2024): Although they did not occur directly in the Strait of Hormuz, they increased fear for maritime security throughout the region.
Geography: It is only about 40 km wide at its narrowest point.
Energy: A large portion of the oil exported by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates passes through it.
Political control: Iran controls the northern coast of the strait and has repeatedly threatened to block it.
This pen does not argue with Artificial Intelligence and here things stand, for the moment. Tempo al tempo.
Source: CSLee
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